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Best Bet: IND +3.5 (-115) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Aces 93, Fever 90
The Pick: Aces 93, Fever 90
We’ll take the Fever’s spread in this one based on head-to-head data along with Vegas’ struggles in specific situations – such as Sunday’s.
Game Betting Analysis
We’ll take the underdog’s spread in this one, as the underdog has covered the spread in four of five meetings between these two clubs. Indiana to win outright is possible, but we won’t go that far – as the Aces enters on a seven-game winning streak. However, the Fever did win the last two meetings in Las Vegas while the Aces have dropped the spread in seven straight games when facing an Eastern Conference team over .500 during the daytime. There’s actually enough data here to suggest taking a risk on the Fever’s ML instead, but we’ll play the safety net with the spread while the total has too many spotty data points to consider.
WNBA Game Trends & Betting Data
Fever vs. Aces Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Fever’s Historic Offense vs. Their Own Defense
Indiana enters with the best offense the WNBA has ever seen — 97.1 points per game and a 116.8 offensive rating, both single-season records, with 20 games of 100-plus points this year. But the Fever’s defense is the obvious wart on an otherwise dominant team, allowing 90.8 points per game and bouncing between 8th and 10th in defensive rating over the past month and a half. Indiana has actually lost games this season despite scoring 100-plus points, something no other 2026 playoff team can say. Against a lesser opponent that math still favors the Fever; against this one, it’s a real problem.
That’s because Las Vegas is bringing the reigning MVP in A’ja Wilson, who’s putting up 25.7 points, 9.4 rebounds, and a league-leading 2.0 blocks per game on 52.4% shooting — a two-way force who can exploit exactly the interior defense Indiana has struggled to shore up. With this series a best-of-three, there’s no time for the Fever’s defense to find itself mid-series the way it might over a longer format; one bad defensive stretch against Wilson and Las Vegas could close this out in two. If Indiana’s offense keeps its historic pace and the defense holds up just enough, the Fever have the higher ceiling in this series. If it doesn’t, Wilson and the Aces won’t need long to prove it
Game Information
- Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
- Kickoff: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ABC
- Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena – 176.7 ppg; 8-11 O/U
Key Players
Indiana Fever
- Caitlin Clark — Last Game: 2 points, 4 rebounds
- Kelsey Mitchell — Last Game: 10 points
Las Vegas Aces
- A’ja Wilson— Last Game: 34 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists
- Jackie Young — Last Game: 5 points, 7 rebounds, 11 assists
Photo Credit: REUTERS
