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The College Football Playoff Quarterfinals delivered top-notch drama and set up a pair of scintillating semifinal matchups for the first week of 2026. Let’s focus on the bottom half of the bracket, where the Fiesta Bowl will feature Miami and Ole Miss.
The Hurricanes delivered the biggest upset of the playoff so far, beating Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl as a 7.5-point underdog. Miami controlled the game from the jump and was the more physical team up front, but the play that truly set the tone was Keionte Scott’s 72-yard interception return for a touchdown in the second quarter. From there, Miami grinded it out with its elite pass rush and forced the Buckeyes to become very one-dimensional.
Ole Miss overcame a nine-point deficit in the second half and stunned Georgia 39-34 in the Sugar Bowl as a six-point underdog. Trinidad Chambliss played lights out and continues to be one of the best stories in college football this season after winning the Division II championship last year at Ferris State.
Miami vs. Ole Miss odds: Opening spread, moneyline, & total
Below are the opening odds for the Fiesta Bowl. We cover the spread, moneyline, and total:
- Miami (-2.5), vs Ole Miss (+2.5)
- Miami (-130), Ole Miss (+110)
- Total: 51.5
Miami vs. Ole Miss odds & analysis: Who has the edge?
Miami has the edge in the trenches. Their offensive line is littered with Sunday players, led by Francis Mauigoa, who is the best right tackle in the sport. The defensive line features perhaps the top overall prospect in the upcoming NFL Draft in edge rusher Rueben Bain, along with another first-round talent in Akheem Mesidor. That duo dominated up front against a good but not great Buckeyes offensive line.
The two quarterbacks are very different. Carson Beck is more of a distributor and was in a groove against an elite Buckeyes defense. Trinidad Chambliss poses more of a threat with his legs but can also make plays downfield. He was on fire in the fourth quarter against Georgia, but I still give Beck the edge due to his experience and ability to read a defense. He was also a more willing runner than expected against the Buckeyes. That said, don’t sleep on Chambliss, who offers more upside with his legs and scrambling ability.
Miami vs. Ole Miss best bet & early lean
Best Bet: Miami -2.5
The scriptwriters decided not to give us Carson Beck against his former team in the semifinals and instead opted for a narrative that includes Lane Kiffin watching his team make a playoff run without him. Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy were the best players on the field against Georgia, but I don’t think that will be the case in this matchup. On paper, Miami is too deep and dynamic to get overpowered on defense the way Georgia did. The Rebels averaged 7.37 yards per play against the Bulldogs but still needed a 40-yard reception on the final drive to set up a game-winning field goal.
Ole Miss has been a resilient team, and Pete Golding is doing a tremendous job, but I think their story ends in the desert, with Miami marching on to the CFP National Championship.
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