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Best Bet: U57.5 (-110) at Hard Rock Bet
Best Bet: UF -5.5 (-110)
Score Prediction: Florida 32, Missouri 25
The Pick: Florida 32, Missouri 25
We’ll take the Under based on head-to-head data, specifically when Florida is the favorite.
Game Betting Analysis
There are a few directions to go here, so let’s start with the better play on paper which is the Under. The Under has hit in four of five meetings between the two schools, while specifically going Under in the last five meetings when Florida is playing as the favorite. Our setback, though, is the Over hitting in three of four games for Florida which includes 52 points last week against Ole Miss – albeit at home. The Gators to cover seems okay to test here as well, with a 3-1 ATS mark this season compared to Mizzou’s 1-3 ATS record. Also, Mizzou has dropped the spread in seven straight games when playing in an AP ranked vs. AP ranked game in October – while also losing outright in nine straight against AP ranked schools, regardless of its own ranking.
Florida-Missouri Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Florida’s Explosive Ground Game vs. Missouri’s Leaky Run Defense
Florida enters 4-0 and ranked No. 8 riding the nation’s most efficient offense, posting a +0.32 adjusted EPA per play that leads all of college football. The engine is the ground game, which ranks 5th nationally in rushing EPA behind workhorse Jadan Baugh, who piled up 142 yards and 3 touchdowns on 29 carries in the Gators’ 52-28 demolition of then-No. 4 Ole Miss. Florida is also converting 61.9% of third downs, the 6th-best mark in the country, which means Missouri’s defense doesn’t just have to slow Baugh down, it has to do it on money downs too.
That’s a problem because Missouri’s run defense ranks just 50th nationally, and the Tigers arrive off a gut-punch, falling 31-24 at Mississippi State to snap what had been an unbeaten start. Missouri’s pass defense is legitimately stout at 3rd in success rate allowed, but Florida has shown it can win on the ground without needing to lean on the pass, which neutralizes that strength. Combine that with an offense that ranks just 107th nationally and converts only 42.9% of third downs, and Missouri looks built to slow down the wrong part of Florida’s attack while its own unit searches for answers.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ABC, ESPN+
- Venue: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium – 56 ppg; 1-1 O/U
Best Bets for College Football Week 5
- Under 57.5 (-110)
- Florida -5.5 (-110)
Key Players
Florida Gators
- QB, Aaron Philo — Last Game: 16/23, 196 yards, TD
- RB, Jadan Baugh — Last Game: 29 carries, 142 yards, 3 TD
Missouri Tigers
- QB, Austin Simmons— Last Game: 23/39, 295 yards, 3 TD
- WR, Donovan Olugbode — Last Game: 4 catches, 54 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
