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Best Bet: ALA -19.5 (-112) at DraftKings
Best Bet: FSU/ALA U49.5 (-108)
Score Prediction: Alabama 35, FSU 14
The Pick: Alabama 35, FSU 14
Either the Under or Alabama’s ATS are fine picks based off the data, both markets providing ample conviction for which you prefer.
Game Betting Analysis
Alabama seems like a safe play here, along with the Under. Let’s start with the total, as FSU has hit the Under in seven of eight games. Alabama has also hit the Under in six of its last seven home games. Moving to the spread, Alabama has covered seven straight home games when facing a non-AP ranked school. Also, the Crimson Tide are on a 6-0 ATS run when playing in the month of September. FSU has dropped the spread in both games this season, while Alabama has also covered three of four games as the favorite. Either markets suffice for us.
FSU-Alabama Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Keelon Russell’s Turnovers vs. Opportunistic Defense
Alabama should win comfortably on paper — a top-5 rush defense, an elite secondary, and a home crowd against a Florida State team ranked near the bottom of the country on both sides. The wildcard is sophomore QB Keelon Russell, who opened Week 2 with a pick-six on Alabama’s first snap and finished with two interceptions against Kentucky. That’s a bad matchup against Florida State’s defense, which ranks No. 2 nationally in takeaways and already picked off SMU’s QB twice in Week 1.
It’s also why the line has moved from Alabama -15.5 to -19 — bettors are backing the Tide’s passing attack against a Florida State secondary that ranks 127th nationally. It’s the right side given the talent gap, but it’s also a bet that Russell’s turnover issues don’t resurface against the one defense built to punish them, especially with last year’s 31-17 FSU upset still fresh.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ABC
- Venue: Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium – 58 ppg; 1-0 O/U
Best Bets for College Football Week 3
- Under 49.5 (-108)
- Alabama -19.5 (-112)
Key Players
FSU Seminoles
- QB, Ashton Daniels — Last Game: 12/23, 125 yards, TD, 16 carries, 71 yards, TD
- RB, Ousmane Kromah — Last Game: 22 carries, 116 yards, TD
Alabama Crimson Tide
- QB, Keelon Russell— Last Game: 16/23, 188 yards, TD, 2 INT
- RB, Daniel Hill — Last Game: 18 carries, 104 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
