Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Preview (10/25/22): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

In a potential playoff preview, the Golden State Warriors (2-1) travel to face the Phoenix Suns (2-1). The Warriors are coming off a 130-125 victory over the Kings, while the Suns just dispatched the Clippers 112-95.

Which Western power will gain the upper hand? Betting odds, predictions, starting lineups, and injury news can be found below.

Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Odds

Phoenix enters this game as favorites; the spread is -2.5 Suns with their moneyline at -140. The Warriors, on the other hand, own a +120 moneyline, which means they must win at least 46% of the time to be profitable. The 224.5 over under line is in the middle of the pack for Tuesday games.

Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Prediction

I am taking the defending champs at +2.5 and +120 moneyline because they match up well against Phoenix.

Across the first three games, Stephen Curry is averaging 33.3 PPG on an incredible 47/44/100 shooting split. His three-point shooting and off-ball gravity provide exceptional spacing for teammates, and it remains unclear how Phoenix can limit him. At 37-years-old, Chris Paul lacks the speed, endurance, and size to keep up with Curry, whether it’s on-ball or fighting screens. Devin Booker isn’t equal to the task either, and he has his own problems trying to stick to Klay Thompson. Phoenix’s backcourt will struggle mightily against Golden State’s, and the same remains true of their benches due to sixth man Jordan Poole.

DPOY-candidate Mikal Bridges offers a glimmer of defensive hope, but Andrew Wiggins’ improved scoring ability means Bridges is preoccupied. With the amount of screens the Warriors set, it’s also difficult for defenders to lock in on one player. Marcus Smart and the Celtics found this out the hard way during the Finals.

Golden State’s bench also possesses far more firepower than Phoenix’s, so the Warriors should either extend their lead or slash the Suns’ lead during those minutes. James Wiseman in particular is a mismatch for the Suns as backup center Jock Landale cannot defend him once Poole initiates the pick and roll.

Defensively, the Warriors are more equipped to handle the Suns. Deandre Ayton must contend with the duo of Draymond Green and Kevon Looney. Although Ayton holds the height advantage, Green and Looney possess the physicality and defensive positioning to subdue him. It will be tough sledding for Ayton’s interior game. Cam Johnson’s shooting is vital for Phoenix, as he can force Draymond to mostly abandon the paint.

Meanwhile, Wiggins can smother point guard through power forward, and I expect them to place him on Booker during crunch time. While Booker is too skilled to not score, Wiggins at least contests his shots and removes clean jumpers.

Phoenix can win this game if Booker torches the Warriors, Paul defends well, the bench holds, and the Suns knock down three-pointers. However, given the matchup context, I believe it’s more likely that Golden State prevails, which makes their plus moneyline tantalizing.

Betting Trends

  • Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings
  • Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings

Key Matchups

Which team will win the positional matchups? Check out below for these vital battles.

Andrew Wiggins vs. Mikal Bridges

Wiggins and Bridges are both elite defenders and three-point threats at the small forward position. They can guard a multitude of positions and offer some off the dribble scoring, although Wiggins is more advanced in this department. The forward who hits their threes and plays lockdown defense down the stretch will heavily influence the outcome of this game. Their results from switching onto guards (Curry, Klay, Paul, Booker) are also absolutely crucial here.

Devin Booker vs. Klay Thompson

Can Booker navigate screens and impede Klay from raining threes? On the other hand, will Klay’s solid isolation defense be enough to cap Booker’s exceptional scoring? Booker assuredly holds the advantage in terms of skill and impact, but Phoenix relies on him far more than the Warriors lean on Klay. If Klay even produces 50-60% of Booker’s output, then the Warriors will maintain excellent winning chances.

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kevon Looney

Phoenix Suns Starting Lineups

PG: Chris Paul
SG: Devin Booker
SF: Mikal Bridges
PF: Cameron Johnson
C: Deandre Ayton

Key Injuries

Golden State Warriors Injuries: Donte DiVincenzo (O), Andre Iguodala (O)

Phoenix Suns Injuries: Jae Crowder (O), Ishmail Wainright (O)

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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