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Heisman Watch Week 1: Bank on Becht’s Bubble Status vs. Marshall?

Check out the Heisman watch entering Week 1 games starting Thursday, September 3 with analysis and odds provided by Lineups.com.
Rocco Becht
Kody Malstrom Avatar
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Arguably one of the deepest groups of quarterbacks in quite some time, this year’s race for the Heisman award is expected to be an exciting one, kicking things off with a jam packed slate in week one. From John Mateer trying to round back into form to Rocco Becht making his debut in his new home, there are no shortage of contenders all trying to throw their hat in the ring for the prestigious individual award.

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Heisman Weekend Watch – Week 1

  • John Mateer (QB, Oklahoma), vs. UTEP
  • Rocco Becht (QB, Penn State), vs. Marshall
  • Bryce Underwood (QB, Michigan), vs. Western Michigan

John Mateer (QB, Oklahoma) vs. UTEP

With health back on his side, positive regression looms large over John Mateer, Oklahoma’s dual threat quarterback who is capable of stuffing the stat sheet on a weekly basis. A hand injury made it difficult for Mateer to play at a competitive level last season, averaging nearly one interception per game while completing 62.2% of his throws.

While a matchup against UTEP hardly poses a threat to his chances of competing for the Heisman, Mateer’s mechanics and throwing motion will be under a microscope. If Mateer proves he can consistently connect with his wideouts to help compliment his running ability, his chances of winning the award will skyrocket, joining a star studded cast near the top of the oddsboard.

Should Mateer continue to struggle with his efficiency, then we can turn our attention elsewhere knowing his underwhelming passing ability will plague him even further once the Sooners enter conference play. A SEC schedule that includes Georgia, Texas, and Texas A&M, all stalwart defenses who will give Mateer fits.

Rocco Becht (QB, Penn State) vs. Marshall

Like Mateer, Iowa State’s Rocco Becht also struggled with his consistency, completing just 60.5% of his passes while averaging 7.6 yards per completion. While Mateer is capable of masking his inefficiencies in the pocket with his running ability, Becht is more of a statue, generating 1.3 yards per carry.

Fortunately for Becht, arguably no quarterback is in a better position to put together a dominant 2026 campaign than the former Cyclone, kicking things off with a favorable matchup against Marshall before navigating one of the easiest schedules in the power four. Marshall’s secondary was incapable of holding their own on the back end last season, finishing last year ranked near dead last in Explosiveness.

While his lack of running ability does handicap his ceiling, a hot start against the Thundering Herd will at least keep him in contention for the Heisman. Penn State’s favorable schedule will help keep the spotlight on him, making him a name worth monitoring. Should Becht underwhelm in his debut with the Nittany Lions, then he may already find himself too deep into a hole for him to climb out of.

Bryce Underwood (QB, Michigan) vs. Western Michigan

Once heralded as the top quarterback in the 2025 recruiting class, Bryce Underwood has failed to live up to the hype, throwing nearly the same amount of interceptions as he did touchdowns. When given the opportunity to run, Underwood did dazzle, averaging over four yards per carry while punching in another six scores with his legs.

While the talent is certainly there, Underwood needs to prove he can keep pace with the top of the position if he wants to garner serious interest as a viable contender for the Heisman. His underwhelming performance in Michigan’s spring and summer scrimmages have done little to prove he is capable of playing at a high level, handicapping the Wolverines offense in the process.

With that said, dazzling in their week one matchup against Western Michigan will help thrust Underwood up the oddsboard, wiping away all the negative narratives that have built up over the offseason. Especially with the Broncos quietly fielding a competitive defense, bringing back a group who ranked in the top-25 in Def Success Rate and in Finishing Drives.

Photo Credit: REUTERS

About the Author
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Kody is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with eight years of experience in the industry. He covers a wide range of sports, including NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, and UFC. What started as a side gig has turned into a full time job, spending a majority of his time staring at odds screens and market movement. When away from the computer, Kody enjoys spending his time outdoors relaxing at the beach or golfing with friends.

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