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Best Bet: Under 38.5 (-112) at DraftKings
Best Bet: MICH -5.5 (-110)
Score Prediction: Michigan 22, Iowa 16
The Pick: Michigan 22, Iowa 16
We’ll back the Wolverines and the Under based on head-to-head trends along with Iowa’s data against AP ranked schools.
Game Betting Analysis
There is a lot of data pointing to both the Under and Michigan hitting. Let’s start with the Wolverines, who enter as winners in the last four head-to-heads which all include ATS covers as favorites – the last three as double-digit favorites. On the other side is Iowa, who has dropped the spread in its last six games when facing an AP ranked school as an AP ranked school. The Under isn’t bad to look at either, hitting in five straight games for Iowa when facing an AP ranked school in September. It has also hit in four of five meetings.
Iowa-Michigan Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Michigan’s Turnovers vs. Iowa’s Ball-Hawking Defense
Michigan’s numbers look gaudy — Bryce Underwood is 40-of-64 for 504 yards and 3 touchdowns with 156 rushing yards and two more scores, and the Wolverines dropped 52 on UTEP — but he’s been erratic, the offensive line has been shaky in protection, and Michigan has fumbled six times in three games, losing four. That’s a problem against an Iowa defense that’s forced 11 picks and 11 fumbles and has statistically been one of the best units in the country, even against a soft early schedule. If Iowa gets Michigan into obvious passing downs, Underwood’s aggressiveness turns into points the other way.
Iowa’s own margin is thin. QB Hank Brown has been mistake-free — zero turnovers, 73% completion, 473 yards, 3 touchdowns — riding a run-by-committee attack with four different backs topping 100 yards in a game, but that ground game managed just 93 yards against Iowa State and now meets a Michigan front that ranks 10th nationally in total defense, 9th in tackles for loss, and 10th in sacks under first-year coordinator Jay Hill. Iowa’s also banged up at the skill spots, with RB Kamari Moulton and TE DJ Vonnahme still working back. Force Iowa into third-and-long, and its conservative offense loses the margin it needs to survive.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: CBS
- Venue: Michigan Stadium – 40.3 ppg; 1-2 O/U
Best Bets for College Football Week 4
- Under 38.5 (-112)
- Michigan -5.5 (-110)
Key Players
Iowa Hawkeyes
- QB, Hank Brown — Last Game: 12/12, 153 yards, 2 TD
- RB, Xavier Williams — Last Game: 6 carries, 151 yards, 3 TD
Michigan Wolverines
- QB, Bryce Underwood— Last Game: 19/25, 223 yards, 2 TD; 6 carries, 22 yards
- WR, JJ Buchanan — Last Game: 7 catches, 92 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
