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Best Bet: NYL +6.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Lynx 90, Liberty 84
The Pick: Lynx 90, Liberty 84
We’ll take the Liberty’s spread based on head-to-head data paired with Minnesota’s skid entering the postseason.
Game Betting Analysis
We’ll be siding with the Liberty’s spread here, although conviction isn’t the highest. Why? Well, New York is a lousy 1-7 ATS on the road when facing the Western Conference. So why side with them? Funny enough, New York has covered three of four meetings with the Lynx which includes their last meeting which was in Minnesota. Also, the Lynx enter the WNBA Playoffs on a 1-5 ATS skid over their last six games. While we want to take the Over, the data just isn’t there with the only indication of a play slightly favoring the Liberty’s spread.
WNBA Game Trends & Betting Data
Liberty vs. Lynx Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Liberty’s Championship Core Health vs. Lynx’s Late-Season Slide
New York is the No. 8 seed, but the Liberty are the only team here with a championship pedigree against this exact opponent — they beat Minnesota for the 2024 title, and Breanna Stewart (20.8 ppg) remains the best player on the floor when healthy. That’s the catch: Stewart woke up with left knee soreness and sat out the finale, and Jonquel Jones rolled her ankle in the same game, leaving New York’s title-winning trio in real question for Sunday. If both are full-go, New York’s proven closers give the Liberty a real path; if either is limited, a team that’s already used 15 different starting lineups this year has little margin left.
Minnesota still has the better resume — 33-11, top-five offensive and defensive ratings, second-best 3-point shooting in the league — but the Lynx stumbled in, losing four of their final six as defensive cracks showed. Rookie floor general Olivia Miles (19.8 ppg, 6.0 apg) is dealing with a left calf issue, and Minnesota’s bench, dead last in scoring at 15.4 points per game, offers no safety net if she’s compromised. New York has already won two of three regular-season meetings. If Miles isn’t at full speed, the top seed’s margin shrinks fast against a team that’s beaten them on the biggest stage before.
Game Information
- Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
- Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ABC
- Venue: Target Center – 177.2 ppg; 14-8 O/U
Key Players
New York Liberty
- Breanna Stewart — Last Game: DNP
- Sabrina Ionescu — Last Game: 7 points, 4 rebounds
Minnesota Lynx
- Napheesa Collier— Last Game: 6 points, 7 rebounds
- Kayla McBride — Last Game: 22 points
Photo Credit: REUTERS
