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Best Bet: BUF -4.5 (-118) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Bills 31, Lions 24
The Pick: Bills 31, Lions 24
Were handcuffed to the ATS here, given Detroit’s struggles off a win along with mixed OT-ATS trends worth noting, we’ll ride with the Bills at -4.5.
Game Betting Analysis
Everyone seems to be on the Bills for this game, and it’s hard to argue after Week 1 results saw the Lions almost give away a home lead and fight through overtime. Teams coming off overtime and playing Thursday Night Football are 6-25 ATS since 2000, while Detroit has also failed to cover the spread in six straight games when coming off a win. So while overtime was only two possessions and fatigue might not matter much, Detroit off a win is still hard to trust in the ATS market. Detroit has also lost five straight outright to Buffalo. The one setback for Buffalo bettors is that the underdog has covered the spread in four straight meetings. In terms of the total, the Under has hit in four of five meetings although Buffalo has gone Over in eight straight home games played in September. We’re handcuffed to the ATS here.
Lions-Bills Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Detroit’s Defense Has Two Real Holes
Detroit survived New Orleans in overtime largely because it couldn’t stop tight ends — Juwan Johnson (7 catches, 69 yards, game-tying TD) and Noah Fant both scored in the same game. Buffalo counters with Dalton Kincaid, fresh off a career-high 130 yards out of a 3-TE package that shredded Houston. That’s a rematch built for Kincaid to repeat.
The second crack: Detroit’s run defense is elite overall (5th in the league last season) but has allowed 445 QB rushing yards since 2024, a weakness Dan Campbell calls close to an Achilles heel. Josh Allen scrambling on money downs is exactly the crack this defense hasn’t fixed — and he’ll be doing it in Buffalo’s brand-new Highmark Stadium, debuting on Thursday night after the Bills went just 4-5 ATS at the old building last year.
Game Information
- Date: Thursday, September 17, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. (ET)
- Network: APVO
- Location: Buffalo, New York
- Venue: Highmark Stadium – n/a
Thursday Night Football Betting Information
Key Players
Detroit Lions
- QB, Jared Goff — Last Game: 26/39, 206 yards, 2 TD
- RB, Jahmyr Gibbs — Last Game: 29 carries, 156 yards, 2 TD; 5 catches, 30 yards
Buffalo Bills
- QB, Josh Allen — Last Game: 20/29, 334 yards, 2 TD; 6 carries, 23 yards, 2 TD
- WR, D.J. Moore — Last Game: 6 catches, 100 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
