Share 
Best Bet: NYL +3.5 (-115) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Liberty 86, Lynx 84
The Pick: Liberty 86, Lynx 84
We’ll take the Liberty based on head-to-head results and Minnesota’s recent struggles.
Game Betting Analysis
As in Game 1, we’ll side with the Liberty in this one as New York has now covered the spread in four of five games against Minnesota – the Lynx failing to cover all five with the Push in July. Minnesota has now failed to cover the spread in seven straight road games when coming off a loss as the favorite, along with failing to cover the spread in six of seven games overall. New York has also won four straight home games outright when facing a Western Conference team as the underdog, along with four of five against Minnesota. We side with the dog again.
WNBA Game Trends & Betting Data
Lynx vs. Liberty Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Lynx’s Foul Discipline vs. Stewart’s Post Mismatch
Minnesota’s season now hinges on whether Napheesa Collier and Natasha Howard can guard Breanna Stewart without fouling — both fouled out in Sunday’s 91-75 Game 1 loss, part of a 23-foul team effort that sent Stewart to the line 18 times (16 makes) on her way to 34 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists on 11-of-18 shooting. The Lynx were outscored 51-31 after halftime as the fouls piled up, shooting just 34% from the field over the final two quarters, and once Minnesota’s bigs started backing off to protect themselves from fouling out, New York’s shooters made them pay, hitting 13 of 25 from three.
Coach Cheryl Reeve owned the issue afterward — “You can’t give her 12 free throws… fouling at the end of the shot clock, it’s just not smart” — and the fix is specific: verticality over reach-ins on Stewart’s post-ups. Minnesota still ranks second in the league in steals (8.7 per game) and leads in offensive rebounding (9.3 per game), but neither shows up when its two best defenders are playing cautious in foul trouble. Keep Collier and Howard on the floor and engaged, and the Lynx’s turnover-and-rebounding identity gives them a real shot on the road; repeat Game 1’s whistle totals, and New York closes out the series Tuesday night in Brooklyn.
Game Information
- Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Network: USA, CNBC
- Venue: Barclays Center – 167.6 ppg; 8-14 O/U
- Series Score: Liberty 1-0
Key Players
Minnesota Lynx
- Kayla McBride — Last Game: 14 points, 6 assists
- Napheesa Collier — Last Game: 12 points, 5 rebounds
New York Liberty
- Breanna Stewart— Last Game: 34 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists
- Sabrina Ionescu — Last Game: 13 points, 6 assists
Photo Credit: REUTERS
