Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars Game 5 Preview, Picks & Odds for Tuesday, April 28, 2026

By Kody Malstrom | Jul 23, 2026, 12:20pm

With positive regression looming over both back lines, the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild were finally able to round back into dominant form, walling off each other’s assault to stay under the full game total. Factoring out overtime, their result in Expected Goals solidified their performance, combining for less than 5.5 Expected Goals.

Heading into game five, expect the Wild and Stars back lines to continue to thrive, bottling up each other’s offense and forcing them to rely on a heavier volume of low quality Shots on Goal. With Jake Oettinger and Jesper Wallstedt firing on all cylinders, goals will come at a premium, resulting in another ugly defensive slugfest.

Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars Betting Analysis

After a slow start to the regular season, the Minnesota Wild front line have been able to round back into a competitive unit, ranking above league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Their resurgence has helped limit the amount of negative variance in their contests, increasing their chances of winning.

Unfortunately for the Wild, their front line has been unable to carry over their momentum into game four, generating just 2.8 Expected Goals before needing extra time to put away the Stars. Their lack of depth past their top two lines were on full display, leaving them vulnerable to prolonged scoring lulls which made it hard for them to create space on the scoreboard.

The Stars high level of play on defense has had no issue with giving the Wild fits throughout the series, fielding a back line who resides near the top of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. With their back line capable of keeping a defender on the Wild’s forwards hips, their quality of shot attempts harshly declines, lowering the probability it turns into a Shot on Goal.

On the other end, the Wild back line have been able to match the Stars output, grading it out nearly the same in Expected Goals Against. With Roope Hintz dealing with an injury, the Stars lack the versatility that is needed to stretch out the Wild coverage, fielding just three players who average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.

Heading into game five, expect both back lines to continue to play at a very high level, holding each other off the scoreboard by consistently smothering their Shots on Goal. Especially with both goalies capable of holding their ground when the pressure ramps up, averaging less than three Goals Against per game and a Save Percentage higher than .900.

Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars Best Bet, Pick & Prediction

Best Bet: Under 5.5 (+113)
Score Prediction: 3-2 Stars

Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars Game Odds

Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars Game Information

Date: Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Network: ESPN
Location: Dallas, Texas
Venue: American Airlines Center – 6 goals per game; 20-21-2 O/U
Series Score: Tied 2-2

Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars Betting Resources

Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars Key Players

Minnesota Wild

Kirill Kaprizov – Last Game: (0 Goals, 2 Assists, 4 Shots on Goal)
Matt Boldy – Last Game: (1 Goal, 0 Assists, 4 Shots on Goal)
Jesper Wallstedt – Last Game: (2 Goals Against, 43 Saves)

Dallas Stars

Jason Robertson – Last Game: (1 Goal, 0 Assists, 7 Shots on Goal)
Wyatt Johnston – Last Game: (0 Goals, 0 Assists, 3 Shots on Goal)
Jake Oettinger – Last Game: (3 Goals Against, 40 Saves)

Photo Credit: AP/Abbie Parr

Kody Malstrom

Kody is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with eight years of experience in the industry. He covers a wide range of sports, including NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, and UFC. What started as a side gig has turned into a full time job, spending a majority of his time staring at odds screens and market movement. When away from the computer, Kody enjoys spending his time outdoors relaxing at the beach or golfing with friends.