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Best Bets: Austin Riley , Isaac Paredes & George Lombard Jr.
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, September 30th
Wednesday brings a loaded four-game Wild Card slate with real stakes attached to every MLB Playoffs matchup. The Red Sox, Cubs, Phillies, and White Sox all dropped Game 1 and now play with their season on the line, while the Yankees, Padres, Braves, and Astros each get a shot to close out their series in front of a home crowd. That elimination pressure makes for one of the more attractive DFS and prop-betting days of the year — controversial roster decisions, aggressive bullpen usage, and hitters pressing for a big swing all come into play. Here’s where we’re finding the value across pitching, lineups, and player props.
Austin Riley (Braves vs. Phillies) Home Run Odds
Riley’s regular season was rough (.219, 19 HR), but he just delivered the signature moment of the Wild Card round so far — a go-ahead three-run homer off closer Jhoan Duran in the eighth inning of Game 1. He’s historically brutalized left-handed pitching (.269, 46 HR, .839 OPS in 992 career PA vs LHP), and Sánchez, despite a strong overall season, is oddly 0-5 in nine career starts against Atlanta.
Isaac Paredes (Astros vs. White Sox) Home Run Odds
Every single one of Paredes’ career home runs has been pulled — his swing is a near-literal blueprint for Daikin Park’s Crawford Boxes, a 315-foot porch in left with a 21-foot wall. He’s got 22-plus homers this season and has gone deep multiple times in September (Sept 19, Sept 26), so the power stroke is current. He gets to do it at home against Sean Burke, a solid-but-not-overpowering righty rather than a true shutdown arm.
George Lombard Jr. (Yankees vs. Red Sox) Home Run Odds
The rookie shortstop has been electric in a tiny sample: .270/.817 OPS with 2 homers in his first 11 big-league games, and scouts have flagged him for a “rare combination of plate discipline and raw power” — he backed that up with real pop in the upper minors too (6 HR in 56 games at Triple-A, 4 in 20 at Double-A). He won’t carry the short odds a proven slugger would, which is exactly the appeal here: a longer shot with legitimate juice behind it, in the short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium, against a Sonny Gray who’s never faced this current Yankees lineup in a game that matters this much.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
