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Top HR Picks: Ben Rice , Lawrence Butler & Ozzie Albies
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, September 16th
For Wednesday’s slate, we’re prioritizing batter-vs-pitcher data. We’re going with a Yankees slugger, a second-half surge on the Athletics, and a veteran who has the opposing pitcher’s numbers. With that in mind, find out why I’m on Ben Rice, Lawrence Butler, and Ozzie Albies. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
Ben Rice (Yankees at Twins) Home Run Odds
Ben Rice came into Tuesday’s action with a .263/.359/.529 with 38 home runs in 616 plate appearances. This includes impressive batted ball metrics, such as a 14.3% barrel rate. He’s been rolling lately, homering twice in his last three games.
I like the matchup against Zebby Matthews, who has a 4.64 xERA and a 1.73 HR/9. This is a pitcher who struggles with giving up hard contact. On top of that, lefties have a .349 wOBA against him (.310 wOBA vs. righties), which bodes well for Rice, who hits from the left side.
On top of that, Rice has good numbers vs. Matthews, going 4-for-8 with one home run in nine plate appearances. This includes an .860 expected slugging percentage. So, here we have a red-hot hitter with good numbers vs. a pitcher with homer issues. Sign me up. Risk 0.1 units.
Lawrence Butler (Athletics at Rays) Home Run Odds
Lawrence Butler came into Tuesday’s action with a .230/.321/.387 slash with 16 home runs in 487 plate appearances. He’s been so much better in the second half, putting up a 132 wRC+ with 11 home runs.
I like the spot vs. Rays’ right-hander Nick Martinez, who has a 1.09 HR/9 vs. lefties (0.94 HR/9 vs. righties). Butler has good numbers vs. Martinez throughout his career, homering once in six plate appearances.
With Butler swinging a hot bat in the second half, this is the right spot to take a shot on him. Risk 0.1 units.
Ozzie Albies (Braves at Cubs) Home Run Odds
Ozzie Albies came into Tuesday’s action with a .243/.298/.403 with 21 home runs in 641 plate appearances. While he’s been ice-cold in the second half, putting up a 63 wRC+, I’m willing to take a shot on him vs. Shota Imanaga.
The Cubs’ lefty has had major issues with home runs, including a 1.89 HR/9. Albies has terrific numbers vs. Imanaga, going 5-for-12 with two homers and an .831 expected slugging percentage.
I can’t pass up that kind of batter-vs-pitcher data, so we’ll ride with Albies here. Risk 0.1 units.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
