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We got shut out on Monday, as James Wood, Shohei Ohtani, and Jorge Soler each failed to hit home runs. Let’s try to get back on track with the Tuesday slate.
Today, we’re going with Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, and Ketel Marte. Each of these hitters is in a good spot to go yard.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 36-152 (-0.62 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, June 2
Bryce Harper Home Run Odds
Bryce Harper is slashing .261/.361/.507 with 13 home runs in 244 plate appearances. You have to love that his strikeouts are down to 18.9% while maintaining a strong 14.0% barrel rate.
Harper had a terrific May, as highlighted by a 145 wRC+. I like the spot for him against Randy Vasquez tonight.
We’ve seen Harper have a lot of success against Vasquez throughout his career. In six plate appearances, Harper has three hits, including one home run and one double. Within this small sample, Harper has registered a 1.202 expected slugging percentage.
Those are the kind of elite batter-vs-pitcher numbers that I can’t ignore here, even in only six plate appearances.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Harper to hit No. 14 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Matt Olson Home Run Odds
Matt Olson is having a terrific bounce-back season, slashing .261/.340/.543 with 16 home runs in 243 plate appearances. This includes an impressive 15.4% barrel rate.
In May, he had a .459 slugging percentage, but this is a good spot for him to get it rolling. We’ve already seen signs of that, as Olson has homered in two of his last six games.
Up next is a matchup against right-hander Kevin Gausman. While Gausman has good numbers on paper, Olson seems to have his number.
In 16 career plate appearances, Olson has two home runs with a .721 expected slugging percentage against Gausman.
Given how well Olson has done this year, coupled with his success against Gausman, it’s a good spot to take the Braves’ slugger to go yard. Let’s bet on No. 17 tonight for the veteran first baseman. Risk 0.1 units.
Ketel Marte Home Run Odds
Ketel Marte is slashing .262/.317/.462 with 10 home runs in 246 plate appearances. This includes an 11.0% barrel rate. While these numbers are a bit underwhelming, Marte has a strong track record.
Plus, he’s been one of the hottest hitters in baseball. We just saw Marte put up a .295/.345/.524 with four home runs in May. He’s homered five times in his last 13 games, including one against the Dodgers last night.
Marte has been much better against lefties this season, slashing .302/.328/.540 against them. That’s good news because he’ll get one tonight in Eric Lauer.
Lauer has a 5.61 xERA with a 2.55 HR/9 this year, so he’s had a tough time with the long ball.
On top of that, Marte has had success against Lauer. In 22 career plate appearances, Marte has eight hits with two home runs and a .580 expected slugging percentage vs. Lauer.
Considering how hot he’s been at the plate, it’s the right spot to ride with Marte. Risk 0.1 units.
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