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We had a big day on Tuesday, as Bryce Harper and Matt Olson each went yard, giving us some nice profit for the night, even with Ketel Marte losing.
Let’s build on that result with the Wednesday slate, which includes Jo Adell, Freddie Freeman, and Austin Riley.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 38-153 (+0.08 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, June 3
Jo Adell Home Run Odds
Jo Adell is having a disappointing season following a breakout year with the Angels, where he hit 36 home runs. So far this season, Adell is slashing .232/.275/.378 with nine home runs in 258 plate appearances. His barrel rate has plummeted from 17.2% to 8.8%, but at least he’s improved his strikeout rate from 26.4% to 23.6%.
We’re also starting to see Adell slowly heat up at the plate, as he’s homered three times in his last 13 games. We’ve got a good spot for Adell tonight, as he’s going up against Rockies’ right-hander Michael Lorenzen, who has a 5.88 xERA and a 1.57 HR/9 this season.
What’s great about this matchup is that Adell has also had success against Lorenzen, going 6-for-11 with two home runs and an .899 expected slugging percentage in 12 career plate appearances. Add in the fact that the wind is blowing out at 8 MPH at Angel Stadium, and you can see why this is an appealing wager. Risk 0.1 units.
Freddie Freeman Home Run Odds
Freddie Freeman is having his usual consistent type of season, slashing .274/.360/.475 with nine home runs in 253 plate appearances. You have to like the sustained power, even at 36 years old, as Freeman is well on his way to matching last year’s 24 home run total. It’s also intriguing to note that he’s increased his barrel rate from 10.4% to 11.7%.
This is a great time to back Freeman because he’s in the middle of a power surge, having homered three times in his last six games, including one against the Diamondbacks last night. Up next is an exploitable matchup against right-hander Zac Gallen, who has a 5.21 xERA and a 1.52 HR/9 this season.
This is a pitcher that Freeman has hit well against throughout his career, putting up two home runs with a .517 slugging percentage in 31 plate appearances. Given how Freeman is coming in hot in this matchup, we’re going to ride with him here to hit his 10th homer of the season. Risk 0.1 units.
Austin Riley Home Run Odds
Austin Riley was a hitter whom I loved for a bounce-back this season, but it hasn’t happened, as he’s slashing .206/.281/.359 with eight home runs in 249 plate appearances. The barrel rate has decreased considerably, falling from 15.2% to 9.9%.
Riley is ice-cold at the plate right now, in the middle of an 0-for-22 stretch. But perhaps this is exactly the type of matchup he needs to get back on track.
That’s because he’s going up against Blue Jays’ lefty Patrick Corbin, who he’s quite familiar with, having gone 9-for-29 with three home runs and an .804 expected slugging percentage against him. That’s the kind of batter-vs-pitcher data that I can’t pass up here.
Let’s ride with Riley to snap out of this slump in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
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