Share 
Top HR Picks: Eugenio Suarez , Yordan Alvarez & Francisco Alvarez
Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, September 17th
We’ve got a shorter slate of 10 games for the Thursday MLB slate, which means that it’s a little more difficult to find value here. In today’s article, we’re riding with Eugenio Suarez, Yordan Alvarez, and Francisco Alvarez. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
Eugenio Suarez (Reds vs. Dodgers) Home Run Odds
It’s been a disappointing season for Eugenio Suarez in his return to Cincinnati, as he’s slashing .211/.305/.430 with 24 home runs in 466 plate appearances coming into Wednesday’s action. The good news is that he’s been a lot better lately, putting up a 132 wRC+ in August and a 172 wRC+ in September. The veteran slugger has four home runs in his last 10 games.
You have to like the spot at home at Great American Ball Park, which is one of the most homer-friendly environments in MLB. He’s going up against Dodgers’ lefty Justin Wrobleski, who has a 4.70 xERA and a 1.42 HR/9 this season.
Suarez has good numbers against Wrobleski, going 2-for-4 with one home run. With that in mind, we’ll take him to hit No. 25 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Yordan Alvarez (Astros vs. Royals) Home Run Odds
Yordan Alvarez has been phenomenal for the Astros this season, slashing .310/.429/.594 with 39 home runs in 643 plate appearances. This includes an elite 16.1% barrel rate. The veteran slugger has two homers in his last six games, so he’s coming into this one in good form.
I like the matchup vs. Seth Lugo, who has a 5.08 xERA and a 1.04 HR/9 this season. We’ve seen Alvarez go 4-for-11 with two home runs against Lugo throughout his career, so there’s favorable batter-vs-pitcher data here.
To that end, this is another home run prop that checks all the boxes in what you’re looking for. Risk 0.1 units.
Francisco Alvarez (Mets vs. Phillies) Home Run Odds
Francisco Alvarez hasn’t lived up to the hype, slashing .228/.310/.392 with 15 home runs in 392 plate appearances. However, he still has an elite 15.3% barrel rate, which is encouraging. While he hasn’t homered since September 4th, this is a good matchup.
He’s going up against Phillies’ right-hander Aaron Nola, who has a 1.90 HR/9 on the season, so homers have been a major issue.
Alvarez has crushed Nola throughout his career, going 5-for-10 with three home runs. I can’t pass up that kind of batter-vs-pitcher data. Risk 0.1 units.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
