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Top HR Picks: Isaac Paredes , Eugenio Suarez & Ronald Acuna Jr
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, September 24th
Thursday’s slate is loaded with home run upside, but the best plays aren’t always the shortest odds — they’re the ones where a hot bat lines up against a shaky arm in the right ballpark. Today, that means looking past the marquee names and toward matchups where the numbers actually stack in the hitter’s favor: a struggling starter, a hitter-friendly venue, or a bat that’s heating up at the right time. Here’s where the stats point us for today’s best home run.
Isaac Paredes (Astros vs. Athletics) Home Run Odds
This is the clearest matchup edge on the board. Paredes is running hot — .286 with 4 homers over his last 10 games — and he’s drawing a starter in Barnett who’s been genuinely bad: 1-4 with a 7.16 ERA and a .282 opponent average, including a line last time out where he allowed 3 earned runs on 7 hits in just 3⅓ innings. Add in that the Athletics’ home park (the smaller minor-league-sized dimensions they’ve been playing in) is one of the more hitter-friendly environments in the sample, and this is hot bat plus shaky arm plus favorable venue all stacking in the same direction.
Eugenio Suarez (Reds vs. Braves) Home Run Odds
Suárez has the best underlying home run rate of anyone in today’s group — 25 homers in 122 games, going deep in 19.7% of his appearances, ahead of even Acuña’s pace. He’s a right-handed hitter facing a right-handed starter in Mahle, a normal platoon matchup, at Truist Park, which plays fair-to-slightly-hitter-friendly. The volume of power here is the separator.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves vs. Reds) Home Run Odds
Acuña’s power is well established — 20 HR in 104 games, homering in 17.3% of his outings — and he gets a home matchup against Singer, a solid-but-not-dominant Reds righty. Home park, right matchup, elite bat: a strong stats-based case even before touching the odds board where he has great value.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
