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Top HR Picks: Josh Lowe , Michael Harris & Shea Langeliers
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, September 13th
We’ve narrowed down a stacked Sunday slate with three favorable spots for home run props. Each of the games we chose has a total of at least 8.5 runs, with two of the games at 9.5. These are games with questionable pitchers in hitter-friendly environments. With that in mind, keep reading to find out why Josh Lowe, Michael Harris, and Shea Langeliers are our best home run props today.
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Josh Lowe (Angels vs. Nationals) Home Run Odds
Josh Lowe came into Saturday’s action with a .205/.275/.352 slash with 11 home runs in 304 plate appearances. This includes a 28.9% strikeout rate and an 8.5% barrel rate. Hardly the kind of numbers that jump off the screen.
However, we saw Lowe recently homer on September 5th. On top of that, he’s going up against right-hander Jake Irvin. The Nationals’ righty has a 5.35 xERA and a 1.48 HR/9 this season, so long balls have been a major issue.
As a left-handed hitter, Lowe is much better vs. righties, putting up a .173 ISO against them (.021 ISO vs. lefties). Additionally, Lowe has had a ton of success vs. Irvin throughout his career. In only four plate appearances, Lowe has two home runs against him.
Considering this favorable spot, we’ll ride with Lowe to hit No. 12 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Michael Harris (Braves vs. Phillies) Home Run Odds
Michael Harris has been rock-solid for the Braves this year, slashing .283/.311/.480 with 24 home runs in 565 plate appearances. This includes a 10.2% barrel rate and a 19.8% strikeout rate. Harris has been able to hit the ball hard while putting it in play often. That’s the combination you love to see in a young hitter.
I love the spot against Phillies’ right-hander Andrew Painter, who has a 4.55 xERA and a 1.55 HR/9 on the season. Just like with Jake Irvin, we’re trying to capitalize on another pitcher who has major issues with home runs.
You have to like the batter-vs-pitcher data here as well, as Harris has gone 3-for-3 with one home run and a 1.899 expected slugging percentage vs. Painter.
To that end, we’ll ride with Harris to hit No. 25 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Shea Langeliers (Athletics vs. Mariners) Home Run Odds
Shea Langeliers was having a terrific season before getting injured, slashing .263/.332/.497 with 23 home runs in 416 plate appearances. This includes an impressive 14.7% barrel rate. Langeliers returned to the A’s lineup on Saturday.
He’s got a terrific matchup on Sunday against Mariners’ right-hander Bryce Miller, who has really struggled lately. We’ve seen him give up at least one home run in nine of his last 10 outings.
Langeliers has excellent numbers vs. Miller throughout his career, homering three times in 12 plate appearances. That’s the kind of batter-vs-pitcher data that we can’t ignore.
Playing in a home run haven like Sutter Health Park also bodes well for this prop, so let’s roll with Langeliers here. Risk 0.1 units.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
