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Top HR Picks: Julio Rodriguez , Kazuma Okamoto & Roman Anthony
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, September 11th
We’ve got a full slate of MLB games for Friday, but we’re zeroing in on Mariners/Athletics, Orioles/Blue Jays, and Royals/Red Sox. The focus for today is on favorable park factors at Sutter Health Park, along with targeting a home run-prone pitcher and a hitter who has looked good since returning from injury. We have to get a bit creative because there isn’t any favorable weather when it comes to windy conditions or scorching temperatures. With that in mind, let’s dive into my best home run props today.
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Julio Rodriguez (Mariners vs. Athletics) Home Run Odds
Julio Rodriguez came into Friday’s action with a .239/.298/.390 slash with 20 home runs in 587 plate appearances. This includes an underwhelming 8.8% barrel rate. Needless to say, it’s been an extremely disappointing season for the Mariners’ slugger.
However, Julio hit No. 21 on Thursday night, and we all know how home runs can come in bunches, especially for hitters with strong track records. That makes me like his chances of going yard once again, this time at Sutter Health Park, which is one of the best spots for home runs in MLB.
The pitching matchup is favorable as well, with left-hander Jeffrey Springs on the mound. The veteran southpaw has a 4.83 xERA and a 2.28 HR/9 on the year, so home runs have been a major problem. As a cherry on top, Julio has been better vs. lefties (.172 ISO) than righties (.142 ISO). Risk 0.1 units.
Kazuma Okamoto (Blue Jays vs. Orioles) Home Run Odds
Kazuma Okamoto has been a rock-solid pickup for the Blue Jays, currently slashing .232/.306/.451 with 30 home runs in 576 plate appearances. This includes excellent batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 13.5% barrel rate.
Okamoto is starting to heat up at the plate, going 7-for-21 (.300 BA) in his last six games. During this stretch, he’s homered twice. That’s good news for the upcoming matchup vs. former Blue Jay Chris Bassitt, who has a 5.09 xERA on the season.
WIth how Okamoto has been swinging the bat of late, he looks like a nice value in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Roman Anthony (Red Sox vs. Royals) Home Run Odds
Roman Anthony has had an injury-plagued season, slashing .236/.344/.382 with four home runs in 183 plate appearances. However, both the barrel rate (12.1%) and plate discipline have been solid (13.7% walk rate).
Since returning from injury on August 30th, Anthony has four multi-hit games. We just saw him homer against the Angels on Wednesday, so perhaps this can be the start of a hot streak.
You have to like the matchup vs. Seth Lugo, who has a 5.11 xERA and a 1.02 HR/9 this season. Lugo recently got shelled by the Guardians for nine earned runs, including two homers, on August 30th. To that end, let’s ride with Anthony here. Risk 0.1 units.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
