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Top HR Picks: Kyle Schwarber , Cal Raleigh & Bryan Reynolds
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, September 10th
We’ve got a small MLB slate of only five games on Thursday, so we’re going to keep it simple for home run props. The focus is not only on sluggers with strong track records for power, but also on batted-ball metrics. We’re focusing on players who are generating hard contact at a high rate, looking at their xwOBA in the last seven days. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at why Kyle Schwarber, Cal Raleigh, and Bryan Reynolds are my home run props for Thursday, September 10th.
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Kyle Schwarber (Phillies vs. Astros) Home Run Odds
Kyle Schwarber is having yet another terrific season for the Phillies, coming into Wednesday’s action with a .242/.357/.527 slash with 43 home runs in 623 plate appearances. He’s now homered at least 40 times in four of the last five seasons. Schwarber still has excellent batted-ball metrics, including a 16.8% barrel rate.
In his last seven days, Schwarber is crushing the ball, putting up a .512 xwOBA with three home runs. That bodes well for today’s matchup against Cristian Javier, who is putting up a 4.98 xERA and a 1.63 HR/9 on the season. Javier is giving up a lot of hard contact, as highlighted by a 9.4% barrel rate.
Cal Raleigh (Mariners vs. Rangers) Home Run Odds
Cal Raleigh has had an abysmal season after finishing runner-up for AL MVP, coming into Wednesday’s action with a .184/.297/.379 slash with 21 home runs in 458 plate appearances. However, he’s been much better in the second half, putting up a .282 ISO (.140 ISO in the first half). In the last seven days, Raleigh has one home run and a .463 xwOBA, which bodes well for this home run prop.
The pitching matchup is extremely tough against Jacob deGrom, who has a 3.56 xERA, but the veteran right-hander has had some issues with the long ball, including a 1.19 HR/9. On top of that, Raleigh has one home run in 17 plate appearances vs. deGrom, so there’s some familiarity here.
Simply put, the one they call “Big Dumper” has finally found his swing, so we can take advantage of a slight discount in price due to the matchup vs. deGrom here.
Bryan Reynolds (Pirates vs. White Sox) Home Run Odds
Bryan Reynolds is currently slashing .268/.373/.432 with 16 home runs in 632 plate appearances. This includes a career-high 11.5% barrel rate. It’s quietly been a productive season for the veteran outfielder, especially of late. In the last seven days, Reynolds has a .649 xwOBA with one homer in 25 plate appearances.
That ranks 1st in MLB during this stretch, so it’s a good time to take a shot on Reynolds. It’s a tough matchup against White Sox prospect Hagen Smith, but he’s only been built up to three innings, so Reynolds will have opportunities vs. Chicago’s bullpen.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
