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Best Bets: Kyle Schwarber , Matt Olson & Alec Bohm
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, October 1st
It’s win or go home in the MLB Playoffs tonight. The Phillies and Braves split the first two games of this NL Wild Card Series — Atlanta taking Game 1, Philadelphia forcing this winner-take-all finale with a wild 10th-inning comeback in Game 2 — and now it all comes down to one night at Truist Park. Both bullpens are banged up, both offenses have already shown they can strike fast, and with a trip to face the Dodgers in the NLDS on the line, the long ball feels like it’s going to play a role. Here are three players to watch for a home run tonight.
Kyle Schwarber Home Run Odds
Schwarber has 45 home runs this season, tied for the MLB lead, and he’s already gone deep in this series — a left-on-left shot off Dylan Lee in Game 2’s eighth inning that tied the score. Atlanta’s plan tonight is to open with lefty Ray Kerr before handing the bulk of the game to Grant Holmes, a right-hander who’s allowed 22 home runs this season (1.31 HR/9). Once Holmes enters, Schwarber gets the platoon advantage against a pitcher who’s proven homer-prone all year, at a point in the game when he’s seeing his third or fourth look at Atlanta’s bullpen in as many days.
Matt Olson Home Run Odds
Olson has 40-plus home runs this season and has been described as “heating up” late, making him the Braves’ best power counter in a lineup that’s otherwise been quiet this series. He’ll see Aaron Nola to start Game 3, and Nola has had a homer-prone year by his standards — 37 home runs allowed in 175.1 innings, a 1.90 HR/9 that ranks among the higher rates of any potential Game 3 starter in this round. Add in Truist Park, Olson’s home field all season, and this is as good a pitcher-hitter matchup as either roster offers tonight.
Alec Bohm Home Run Odds
Bohm isn’t the name anyone’s circling for a home run tonight — his 15 homers and modest .383 slugging this season don’t scream power threat. But the underlying numbers tell a different story: his 90.6 mph average exit velocity and 43.8% hard-hit rate both sit well above league average (88.6 mph, 37.1%), meaning he’s squaring up baseballs at an elite clip even when they’re not leaving the yard. He’s also the guy who just delivered the biggest swing of this series — a 10th-inning, series-saving homer off Didier Fuentes in Game 2 — and CBS Sports has flagged him as “hot” with a recent stretch of extra-base pop. With Atlanta’s bullpen already stretched thin and turning to arms like Grant Holmes who’ve had homer issues this season, Bohm’s contact quality gives him a real, under-the-radar shot to do it again.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
