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Top HR Picks: Luis Campusano , Ian Happ & Matt Olson
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, September 13th
We’ve got a busier Monday slate than usual with 10 games on the schedule. There are only two games with totals of 9.5+ runs, so we’re going to lock in on those games for today. With temperatures cooling a bit, it’s become a little more difficult to hit home runs. That’s why we’re making more of an effort to target games that project to be high-scoring. With that in mind, find out who I’m locking in on in the Braves/Cubs and the Padres/Rockies.
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Luis Campusano (Padres at Rockies) Home Run Odds
Luis Campusano came into Sunday’s action with a .281/.381/.459 slash with seven home runs in 215 plate appearances. This includes a respectable 9.4% barrel rate. Campusano has hit safely in five of his last six games, so he’s in good form right now. He also has two home runs in his last eight games.
Up next is a matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano, who has a 6.70 xERA and a 1.90 HR/9, so homers have been a major problem for him. Sugano has given up two homers in three of his last six starts. That’s bad news in a hitter’s haven like Coors Field.
On top of that, Campusano has been good vs. Sugano throughout his career, going 3-for-4 with one home run and a 1.341 expected slugging percentage. Considering these circumstances, we’ll ride with Campusano to go yard here.
Ian Happ (Cubs vs. Braves) Home Run Odds
Ian Happ came into Sunday’s action with a .219/.327/.410 with 23 home runs in 591 plate appearances. While he still has an 11.2% barrel rate, which aligns with career norms, his strikeout rate has skyrocketed to 30.5%.
While Happ hasn’t homered since August 25th, I like the spot for him on Monday. For one, we’re getting favorable weather conditions at Wrigley, with forecasts calling for 13 MPH winds blowing out to left field. That’s great news for home runs.
On top of that, it’s a matchup against Reynaldo Lopez, who has a 4.81 xERA and a 1.30 HR/9, so like Sugano, he’s had issues with the long ball. Happ also has one career homer in nine plate appearances vs. the Braves’ right-hander. With that in mind, we’ll go with Happ to hit No. 24 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Matt Olson (Braves at Cubs) Home Run Odds
Matt Olson has had a nice resurgence for the Braves. Heading into Sunday’s action, he had a .247/.321/.502 with 38 home runs in 645 plate appearances. This includes a 14.6% barrel rate.
We’ve seen Olson homer as recently as September 11th. I like the spot on Monday. Like Happ, Olson can benefit from the windy weather at Wrigley. You also have to like the pitching matchup vs. David Peterson, as Olson has had success vs. the lefty. In 28 plate appearances, Olson has four home runs, so there’s a lot of familiarity here.
Peterson has struggled this season, putting up a 5.01 xERA and a 0.96 HR/9. Considering these circumstances, we’ll go with Olson to hit No. 39 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
