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Top HR Picks: Nolan Arenado , Pete Alonso & Kyle Stowers
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, September 23rd
It’s a 16-game slate, and a few matchups stand out above the rest for hitters trying to go deep. Nolan Arenado gets a trip to Coors Field against a rookie arm who’s been getting hit hard all year, Pete Alonso is riding one of the best power seasons in baseball into a home date at Camden Yards, and Kyle Stowers brings his 20-homer season to a hittable Cubs starter at Wrigley Field, where the wind can turn fly balls into souvenirs in a hurry. Here are our top three picks to leave the yard today.
Nolan Arenado (Diamondbacks vs. Rockies) Home Run Odds
There’s no better setup on the slate than this one. Arenado has quietly put together a strong bounce-back season since being traded to Arizona, and now he gets to take that swing to the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. Rockies rookie Mason Adams has been rocked to a 5.09 ERA this year, and the thin air at altitude does the rest — fly balls that die on the warning track elsewhere carry out in Denver. This is about as clean a park-plus-pitcher combination as you’ll find on any given night.
Pete Alonso (Orioles vs. Blue Jays) Home Run Odds
Alonso has been one of the most productive power hitters in the sport all season, sitting on 40-plus home runs, and he gets a matchup to like at home against Chris Bassitt, who’s been hittable to the tune of a 4.64 ERA. This isn’t about a park quirk or a platoon edge — it’s simply that Alonso is locked into one of the best home run seasons in baseball right now, and Bassitt is the kind of arm he’s feasted on all year.
Kyle Stowers (Marlins vs. Cubs) Home Run Odds
Stowers has quietly built a breakout season in Miami, up to 20 home runs with a .787 OPS, and he draws Kevin Gausman (4.61 ERA) in a Wrigley Field matchup where the wind can turn the ballpark into a launching pad. Stowers has shown he can go deep in bunches — he’s had multiple multi-homer stretches already this year — and Gausman has been more hittable than usual in 2026, giving Stowers a real chance to keep it going.
Photo Credit: REUTE
