Share 
Top HR Picks: Oneil Cruz , Roman Anthony , Corbin Carroll
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, September 12th
With temperatures starting to cool down, it’s been harder to hit home run props, since games have generally been more low-scoring. After hitting on Kazuma Okamoto last night, we’ll continue to try to keep it simple by targeting hitters with a strong track record who are hitting the ball well lately. With that in mind, find out why I’m on Oneil Cruz, Roman Anthony, and Corbin Carroll for the Saturday slate of home run props.
Exclusive $50 BetMGM Rewards Points Bonus + Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if Your First Bet Doesn’t Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Use Bonus Code: OMNILINEUPS
Exclusive $50 BetMGM Rewards Points Bonus + Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if Your First Bet Doesn’t Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Use Bonus Code: OMNILINEUPS
Oneil Cruz (Pirates vs. Cubs) Home Run Odds
Oneil Cruz came into Friday’s action with a .276/.362/.486 slash with 18 home runs in 367 plate appearances. If it weren’t for injury, Cruz’s season-long line would look quite impressive. He’s got an otherworldly 16.7% barrel rate this year, making him worth a look for a home run prop every night, just because he hits the ball so hard.
We just saw Cruz homer on September 10th, and we all know how homers can come in bunches for sluggers, so perhaps this is the start of a hot streak. Up next is a projected high-scoring game at Wrigley Field, as reflected in the nine-run total. It’s a matchup against right-hander Clay Holmes, who has a 4.07 xERA on the season.
Considering this favorable spot, we’ll take a shot on Cruz to hit No. 19 today. Risk 0.1 units.
Roman Anthony (Red Sox vs. Royals) Home Run Odds
Roman Anthony came into Friday with a .236/.344/.382 slash with four home runs in 183 plate appearances. This includes an impressive 12.1% barrel rate along with strong plate discipline metrics, as highlighted by a 13.7% walk rate. We just saw Anthony homer on September 9th, so there’s a chance that he can start to get hot at the plate.
The Royals/Red Sox game is one of the few with a total of 8.5 runs or higher, which is why we’re targeting this matchup. Kansas City is sending out Randy Dobnak, who has gotten lucky this season. His 2.54 ERA is much lower than his 4.81 xERA. Dobnak has been much worse vs. lefties (1.14 HR/9) than righties (0.37 HR/9), which bodes well for Anthony here, since he bats from the left side.
This is a bet on a talented player who is slowly finding his groove at the plate after an extended absence. Risk 0.1 units.
Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks vs. Rangers) Home Run Odds
Corbin Carroll has had a disappointing season, slashing .240/.334/.466 with 19 home runs in 608 plate appearances. However, he homered on Friday night, so this could be the start of a hot streak. I like the matchup against Rangers’ right-hander Kumar Rocker, who has a 4.61 xERA and a 1.34 HR/9 on the season.
Rocker has been worse against lefties like Carroll, giving up a .370 wOBA (.294 wOBA vs. righties). Despite the underwhelming season-long numbers, we all know that Carroll is capable of being one of the best hitters in MLB. Given the favorable pitching matchup, it feels like a good time to take the D-Backs’ slugger to go yard.
With that in mind, we’ll bet on Carroll to go yard here. Risk 0.1 units.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
