Share 
Top HR Picks: Sal Stewart , Ronald Acuna Jr. & Cal Raleigh
Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, September 20th
Sunday’s slate features three hitters who’ve already gone deep in their current series, facing pitchers with very different levels of vulnerability. From a rookie chasing history in Cincinnati to a former MVP candidate trying to snap out of a down year in the thin air of Denver, here’s where the power plays are today.
Sal Stewart (Reds vs. Cubs) Home Run Odds
Stewart has been the story of the second half in Cincinnati, sitting on 32 home runs and 109 RBIs — just two shy of the MLB lead — while hitting .319 over his last 30 games. He’s not just hot in a vacuum against this opponent, either: his 30th homer of the season came against Chicago’s pitching staff on Aug. 29, a two-run shot to left-center off Kevin Gausman.
Today he draws David Peterson, who’s been homer-prone since arriving from the Mets in June, sporting a 5.11 ERA and already 14 long balls allowed in 137.1 innings. The venue helps his case further — Great American Ball Park ranks No. 2 in MLB for home run factor (+18%), and this one’s a 1:40 p.m. getaway-day matinee, conditions that tend to play well for fly-ball contact. Risk 0.1 units.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves vs. Astros) Home Run Odds
Acuña is red-hot right now, with 4 home runs and 10 RBIs over his last seven games, and he already delivered his 20th homer of the year in this very series — a grand slam off Bryan Abreu on Saturday. His season line (.259/.815 OPS, 55 RBIs) doesn’t jump off the page, but the recent surge does.
Today’s a tougher ask on paper: Hunter Brown has been Houston’s most reliable arm, holding a 3.43 ERA with just 11 homers allowed across 97 innings and a modest 6.2% barrel rate. The venue is a wash — Minute Maid plays as a controlled, roughly average park for power (+6% HR factor) — so this pick leans entirely on Acuña’s current form carrying over against a legitimately tough matchup. Risk 0.1 units.
Cal Raleigh (Mariners vs. Rockies) Home Run Odds
Raleigh’s overall numbers are a shell of his 2025 MVP-caliber season — a .184 average and .673 OPS — but the raw power hasn’t disappeared, and he’s clearly seeing the ball well against Colorado. His 23rd homer of the season came Saturday off Jose Quintana, a 459-foot missile at 111.7 mph off the bat.
Today he gets a much softer matchup: Tomoyuki Sugano owns a 5.49 ERA and has already allowed 31 homers in 142.2 innings this year, with a bloated 12.0% barrel rate and 43.2% hard-hit rate allowed. Add in the fact that this game is at Coors Field — the No. 1 home run park in baseball at +47% — and an AL bat getting a look at NL pitching in the thin air, and this is the most favorable setup of the three. Risk 0.1 units.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
