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Top HR Picks: Teoscar Hernandez , Miguel Vargas & Matt Olson
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, September 15th
We’ve got a full slate of games with several spots to choose from, but we’re narrowing it down to sluggers on the Dodgers, White Sox, and Mets. Each of these hitters is in a good spot and swinging the bat well lately. With that in mind, find out why I’m on Teoscar Hernandez, Miguel Vargas, and Juan Soto.
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Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers at Reds) Home Run Odds
Teoscar Hernandez came into Monday’s action with a .265/.332/.417 with 13 home runs in 437 plate appearances. This includes a respectable 10.4% barrel rate. Hernandez has been terrific in September so far, putting up a 205 wRC+.
As one of the hottest hitters in baseball, you have to love the spot for Hernandez here, since it’s at Great American Ball Park, which is one of the most homer-friendly environments in baseball. On top of that, he’s going up against right-hander Rhett Lowder, who has a 5.35 xERA and a 1.28 HR/9.
To that end, this is a play that checks all the boxes. We’ve got a red-hot hitter in a homer-friendly environment against a pitcher who has struggled this season. We’ll ride with Hernandez to hit No. 14 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Miguel Vargas (White Sox at Guardians) Home Run Odds
Miguel Vargas is having a fantastic season for the White Sox. Coming into Monday’s action, he was slashing .247/.355/.470 with 30 home runs in 648 plate appearances. He hit No. 31 in the White Sox win over the Guardians in that game.
I like the matchup for Vargas against Guardians’ lefty Foster Griffin, who just got rocked for eight runs against the Orioles. Righties have been better against him (.317 wOBA) compared to lefties (.285 wOBA). That bodes well for Vargas, who has a 164 wRC+ vs. left-handers (117 wRC+ vs. right-handers).
Considering these lefty/righty splits along with the fact that Vargas has been one of the biggest breakouts of the year, we’ll take a shot on him to homer for the second consecutive night. Risk 0.1 units.
Juan Soto (Mets vs Orioles) Home Run Odds
Juan Soto came into Monday’s action with a .272/.390/.527 slash with 25 home runs in 421 plate appearances. This includes two home runs in his last five games. Despite dealing with an injury-plagued year, Soto has maintained a respectable 13.9% barrel rate.
I like the matchup against Shane Baz, who has a 4.14 xERA on the season. Soto has performed well vs. Baz in a small sample, going 3-for-5 with three walks and a 1.351 expected slugging percentage in eight plate appearances.
Considering these circumstances, we’ll take a shot on Soto to hit No. 26 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
