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We missed on Willson Contreras, Michael Busch and Zach Neto Monday. Let’s try to get back in the winning column on Tuesday.
Today, we’re going with Vinnie Pasquantino, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Byron Buxton. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 80-331 (-0.89 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, August 25
Vinnie Pasquantino Home Run Odds
Vinnie Pasquantino has been terrific since returning from injury, slashing .385/.448/.769 with two home runs in 29 plate appearances. We’re finally starting to see him swing the bat like we expected.
Up next is a great matchup against Max Scherzer, who has had issues with the long ball, as highlighted by a 2.40 HR/9. He’s giving up a ton of hard contact, including a 9.4% barrel rate.
We just saw Scherzer allow seven earned runs in his last outing, so he’s coming into this one in poor form. With that in mind, let’s go with Pasquantino here. Risk 0.1 units.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run Odds
Pete Crow-Armstrong is having an MVP season, heading into Monday’s action with a .281/.379/.559 slash with 33 home runs in 584 plate appearances. This includes an impressive 12.4% barrel rate.
Coming into Monday, PCA had homered six times in his last seven games, so he’s been on fire lately. I’ll take my chances that he can keep it going vs Brandon Pfaadt, who is allowing a 1.01 HR/9 this season.
Yes, Pfaadt has been much improved, but he has a long track record of giving up hard contact. We just saw him give up five earned runs and three homers in his last outing, so perhaps regression is coming. Ride with PCA here.
Byron Buxton Home Run Odds
Byron Buxton came into Monday’s action with a .251/.316/.511 slash with 25 home runs in 399 plate appearances. This includes excellent batted ball metrics, featuring a 16.1% barrel rate.
You have to love the spot at Sutter Health Park, which is one of the most homer-friendly environments in MLB.
Even though Gage Jump has had his moments for the Athletics, he’s been awful at home, putting up a 6.02 ERA. This could be a spot where Buxton goes yard.
Let’s take a chance on the Twins’ slugger to hit No. 26 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
