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We nailed Jose Ramirez to go yard on Thursday, making it a profitable day. We’ll look to keep it rolling on Friday’s slate.
Today, we’re going with Yordan Alvarez, Austin Riley, and Willy Adames. Each of these hitters has a strong track record and is in a favorable situation to hit home runs.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 6-52 (-2.45 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, April 17
Yordan Alvarez Home Run Odds
Yordan Alvarez has been an absolute monster this season, slashing .328/.483/.731 with seven home runs in 89 plate appearances. The plate discipline metrics look phenomenal: 20.2% walk rate, 11.2% strikeout rate. The batted ball numbers are even better: 20.7% barrel rate.
The matchup is on point as well, as Alvarez goes up against Cardinals right-hander Kyle Leahy, who has been disappointing so far, allowing an 8.30 xERA and 16.7% barrel rate. Left-handed hitters have crushed Leahy so far, putting up a .481 wOBA (right-handers have a .226 wOBA against him).
With Alvarez mashing, I’m surprised that we’re able to get him at longer than +300 odds given this favorable matchup. Risk 0.1 units.
Austin Riley Home Run Odds
Austin Riley is off to a slow start, slashing .229/.316/.329 with one home run in 79 plate appearances. However, the plate discipline looks good (11.4 BB%, 17.7 K%). Plus, Riley has an extensive track record, with three 30+ home run seasons under his belt.
On top of that, Riley’s first home run of the season came in his last game, so perhaps this could be the start of a hot streak. There are encouraging signs, as he’s hit safely in five of his last seven games.
Up next is a good spot against Taijuan Walker, who has a 6.59 xERA with a 2.45 HR/9 this season. It’s definitely the right matchup for Riley to hit his second homer of the season, especially in a projected high-scoring game with a 9.5-run total. Risk 0.1 units.
Willy Adames Home Run Odds
Willy Adames is off to a rock-solid start at the plate, slashing .260/.316/.507 with three home runs in 79 plate appearances. The veteran shortstop is hitting the ball hard, as highlighted by an 11.5% barrel rate.
We’re starting to see Adames heat up at the plate, as he’s gone 12-for-36 (.333 BA) with two home runs in his last nine games. He’s got a good matchup next against Nationals’ right-hander Zack Littell.
The former Reds’ innings-eater has put up a 5.35 xERA with a 9.8% barrel rate so far. Even better for this prop is that Littell has already allowed five home runs in only 15 innings.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Adames to hit No. 4 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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