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We got shut out on Thursday, as Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber, and Munetaka Murakami each failed to hit home runs. Let’s bounce back on Friday.
Today, we’re going with Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Michael Busch. Each of these hitters is either in good spots or heating up at the plate.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 11-68 (-1.81 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, April 24
Aaron Judge Home Run Odds
Aaron Judge is currently slashing .242/.361/.571 with nine home runs in 109 plate appearances. As always, the batted ball metrics look straight out of a video game, as highlighted by a 25.0% barrel rate.
Judge will get to hit in Houston tonight, where those Crawford boxes in left field (shorter distance from home plate) make it a great place to hit for right-handed power hitters.
On top of that, the pitching matchup is a good one with Lance McCullers Jr. on the mound. The oft-injured righty is giving up a 9.3% barrel rate this season.
Judge comes into this game having homered in six of his last 11, so we’ll take a shot on him going yard, given the strong matchup and favorable ballpark. Risk 0.1 units.
Ronald Acuña Jr. Home Run Odds
Ronald Acuña Jr. is off to a cold start at the plate, slashing .232/.339/.333 with one home run in 118 plate appearances. However, the plate discipline looks good (11.9 BB%, 18.6 K%) and so does the barrel rate at 12.7%.
I like that we’re getting relatively warm temperatures in Atlanta for this game (79 degrees). While Andrew Painter is on the mound for the Phillies, the young righty doesn’t pitch deep into games, so even if he’s on point, Acuña will have chances against the relievers.
Remember, Acuña has 30+ home run power, so there’s a track record here. It’s only a matter of time before he starts hitting home runs. I’ll take a shot that it happens against Painter and the Phillies.
The price looks appealing at longer than +400 odds at the time of this article. Risk 0.1 units.
Michael Busch Home Run Odds
We’ll finish it off with Michael Busch to hit a home run. The Cubs’ first baseman is currently slashing .198/.282/.286 with two home runs in 103 plate appearances. However, he homered 34 times last year, and it seems like he’s starting to find his groove.
Busch is on a four-game hitting streak right now, homering in back-to-back games. One thing about power hitters is that they can often be streaky, so we want to hop on board when they’re showing signs of being locked in at the plate.
I like the matchup against Dodgers’ right-hander Emmet Sheehan, who has gotten pummeled by lefties this season, allowing a .462 wOBA against them this season.
We should also note that forecasts project 6 MPH winds blowing out to center in this game, which is an added bonus.
With that in mind, we’ll take Busch to go yard for the third consecutive game. Risk 0.1 units.
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Photo Credit: AP/Matt Rourke
