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Let’s get back on the grind with today’s home run prop, featuring Vinnie Pasquantino, Junior Caminero, and Mickey Moniak. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 80-338 (-1.59 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, August 28
Vinnie Pasquantino Home Run Odds
I went with Vinnie Pasquantino on the Wednesday slate, but missed there. Of course, he ended up homering the next game. Just my luck! But we don’t complain here. Instead, we’re riding with Pasquantino once again, as he’s been one of the hottest hitters in MLB lately.
The Royals’ first baseman came into Thursday’s action with a .333/.421/.636 slash with two home runs in 33 plate appearances in August. After homering on Thursday, he’ll look to make it two in a row against a familiar face.
Pasquantino will get to go up against Guardians’ right-hander Tanner Bibee, who has a 4.31 xERA and a 1.50 HR/9 in 156.1 innings this season. This includes an underwhelming 8.2% barrel rate, so he’s giving up a fair share of hard contact.
On top of that, Pasquantino has excellent numbers against Bibee, as highlighted by a .693 expected slugging percentage with two home runs in 19 plate appearances.
Junior Caminero Home Run Odds
I came into the season expecting Junior Caminero to regress from last season’s numbers, partly due to the shift from a minor league bandbox to a pitcher-friendly environment at Tropicana Field. That couldn’t have been more wrong.
In fact, Caminero has been even better this year, currently slashing .280/.366/.531 with 35 home runs in 579 plate appearances. While he hasn’t homered since August 11th, this feels like a good spot to ride with him.
Up next is an exploitable matchup at home against Casey Mize, who Caminero has crushed in a small sample, homering once with a .665 expected slugging percentage in four plate appearances.
Mickey Moniak Home Run Odds
We’ll finish it off with a Rockies’ slugger in Mickey Moniak, who is slashing .253/.296/.515 with 21 home runs in 358 plate appearances coming into Thursday’s action. This includes two home runs in his last seven games, so he’s in top form right now.
I like the matchup against Braves’ right-hander Grant Holmes, who has a 4.82 xERA and a 1.38 HR/9 this season. This includes a below-average 8.9% barrel rate, so hitters have been able to generate hard contact against him.
Additionally, Moniak has had success vs. Holmes, homering once with a 1.598 expected slugging percentage in three plate appearances.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
