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We made a small profit on Thursday, as Shohei Ohtani went yard, helping make up for losses on Kyle Tucker and Randy Arozarena.
Today, we’re going with Colton Cowser, Kyle Manzardo, and Willson Contreras. Each of these hitters has been hot at the plate, so I like the spot for them.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 44-173 (+0.94 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, June 12
Colton Cowser Home Run Odds
Colton Cowser is slashing .227/.311/.397 with seven home runs in 162 plate appearances. While that’s an underwhelming slash line, Cowser has been swinging a hot bat of late. In the last 14 days, Cowser has four home runs with a 164 wRC+ in 45 plate appearances.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Padres’ right-hander Griffin Canning, who has struggled this year, putting up a 4.46 xERA and 10.1% barrel rate. Home runs have been a major issue for Canning, as highlighted by his 1.65 HR/9. On top of that, lefties like Cowser have crushed Canning, putting up a .404 wOBA, compared to .260 wOBA vs. righties.
Add in the fact that this game is in a hitter-friendly environment in Camden Yards, and you have to like the spot for Cowser to hit his eighth home run of the season. Risk 0.1 units.
Kyle Manzardo Home Run Odds
Kyle Manzardo is currently slashing .235/.325/.399 with seven home runs in 209 plate appearances. This has been a disappointing start to the season, but at least he’s hitting the ball hard, as highlighted by a 12.1% barrel rate. He’s also been hot at the plate lately. In the last 14 days, Manzardo has a 169 wRC+ with two home runs in 40 plate appearances.
Up next is a matchup against Jack Flaherty, who has a 4.56 xERA and 9.0% barrel rate allowed on the season. Home runs have been a bit of an issue for Flaherty, as he’s allowing a 1.15 HR/9. Additionally, lefties like Manzardo have been much better against Flaherty (.371 wOBA) compared to righties (.332 wOBA).
When you consider how locked in Manzardo has been at the plate, then factor in this matchup, you have to like the spot for the Guardians’ first baseman to hit No. 8 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Willson Contreras Home Run Odds
Willson Contreras is currently slashing .284/.381/.516 with 13 home runs in 265 plate appearances. He’s quietly been a rock-solid pickup for the Red Sox, hitting the ball hard with a 14.9% barrel rate. In the last 14 days, Contreras has a 146 wRC+ with two home runs in 42 plate appearances, so he’s been swinging the bat well right now.
Up next is a matchup against Jack Leiter, who has a 4.56 xERA and an 11.1% barrel rate allowed this season. He continues to have an issue with the long ball, as highlighted by a 1.39 HR/9.
This game is in a hitter-friendly environment at Fenway Park as well, so I like Contreras’ chances of hitting his 14th homer of the season tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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