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We made a small profit on Thursday, as Juan Soto hit a home run, making up for losses on Ceddanne Rafaela and Ben Rice.
Today, we’re going with Spencer Torkelson, Marcell Ozuna, and Corbin Carroll. I like the matchups for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 49-188 (+1.12 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, June 19
Spencer Torkelson Home Run Odds
Spencer Torkelson is currently slashing .204/.304/.408 with 12 home runs in 283 plate appearances. While he’s striking out at a high rate (33.6%), he’s still hitting the ball hard (13.8% barrel rate). What I like about targeting Torkelson tonight is that he’s heating up at the plate, homering three times in his last six games.
You also have to love the matchup against White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde, who has really struggled this season, putting up a 4.53 xERA and a 1.91 HR/9 in 66 innings. On top of that, righties like Torkelson have hit Fedde hard, as he’s allowing a .389 wOBA against them (.308 wOBA vs. lefties).
To make this spot even better, we’re getting favorable weather at Comerica Park, where forecasts call for 10.7 MPH winds blowing out to left field. Torkelson has a 48.7% pull rate, so this is right in his wheelhouse as a right-handed hitter. With that in mind, let’s take Torkelson to hit No. 13 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Marcell Ozuna Home Run Odds
Marcell Ozuna has been a major disappointment for the Pirates, slashing .198/.277/.318 with six home runs in 213 plate appearances. His strikeout rate has increased from 24.3% to 29.1%, while his barrel rate has fallen from 11.4% to 8.5%. This poor performance has caused Ozuna to lose at-bats. He’s no longer an everyday player.
However, I like the spot at Coors Field against left-hander Kyle Freeland, who is giving up a 6.05 xERA and a 2.15 HR/9 this season. Righties like Ozuna have a .422 wOBA against Freeland (.334 wOBA vs. lefties). Additionally, Ozuna has always crushed lefties throughout his career, as highlighted by a .200 ISO and 123 wRC+.
It’s also encouraging to see that Ozuna hit a home run in his last game. Who knows, maybe he’s getting back on track. We can never count out a veteran hitter with a strong track record for power. Add in the fact that this is a projected high-scoring game at Coors Field, and you can see why this looks like an appealing wager. Risk 0.1 units.
Corbin Carroll Home Run Odds
Corbin Carroll is having a terrific season for the Diamondbacks, slashing .275/.364/.540 with 13 home runs in 305 plate appearances. What I love about this spot is we’re getting a discount on Carroll to go yard because it’s a lefty vs. lefty matchup vs. Twins’ southpaw Connor Prielipp.
But here’s the thing: Carroll has crushed lefties this season, putting up an otherworldly 204 wRC+. It’s not like Prielipp has been impressive, either, as he’s putting up a 4.07 xERA and a 9.1% barrel rate on the season.
On top of that, Carroll has been hot at the plate lately, homering four times in his last 10 games, including one in his last game vs. the Angels. With that in mind, we’ll take him to hit No. 14 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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