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We had a profitable night on Thursday, as Tyler Soderstrom went yard, helping make up for losses on Yordan Alvarez and Ronald Acuña Jr.
Today, we’re going with Willson Contreras, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Alec Burleson. Each of these hitters is in a favorable matchup with strong batter-vs-pitcher data.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 39-158 (-0.01 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, June 5
Willson Contreras Home Run Odds
Willson Contreras came into Thursday’s action with a .291/.390/.512 slash with 11 home runs in 241 plate appearances. The veteran first baseman is quietly having an excellent debut season with the Red Sox, which also includes an impressive 10.4% walk rate and a 13.7% barrel rate.
The former Cardinal has pummeled lefties this season, as highlighted by a 184 wRC+. That’s good news because he’ll be going up against one in Yankees’ southpaw Ryan Weathers. Weathers has had issues with the long ball this season, allowing a 1.55 HR/9 and a 10.9% barrel rate. Righties have a 1.56 HR/9 against him.
That plays right into Contreras’ wheelhouse. On top of all this, Contreras has hit well against Weathers throughout his career, homering once with a .744 expected slugging percentage in nine plate appearances.
Considering these favorable factors, we’ll take Contreras to hit No. 12 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Ronald Acuña Jr. Home Run Odds
Despite missing on Ronald Acuña Jr. last night, we’re going with him again here. The main reason here is that this is a hitter with a strong track record who has found his power stroke, having homered five times in his last seven games.
But on top of that, Acuña has a terrific matchup against Pirates’ right-hander Mitch Keller. Even though Keller has limited home runs this year (0.53 HR/9), he’s allowed a 1.00+ HR/9 in each of his previous three seasons, so I’m not convinced that he’s resolved this issue.
More importantly, Acuña has crushed Keller throughout his career, homering three times with a 1.015 expected slugging percentage in 21 plate appearances.
This makes it a great spot to take Acuña to hit No. 8 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Alec Burleson Home Run Odds
Alec Burleson is currently slashing .287/.352/.443 with seven home runs in 256 plate appearances. This includes an impressive 16.0% strikeout rate and a 9.4% barrel rate.
The veteran hasn’t homered since May 19th, but this feels like a good spot to ride with him against Reds’ right-hander Brady Singer, who has had a major issue with homers, allowing a 2.82 HR/9. Hitters consistently hit the ball hard against Singer, as highlighted by an abysmal 12.6% barrel rate.
What’s great here is that Burleson has had success against Singer throughout his career, with one home run, two doubles, and a .976 expected slugging percentage in eight plate appearances.
To that end, this prop checks all the boxes for me, with strong batter-vs-pitcher data against a pitcher who has had major issues with hard contact. We’ll roll with Burleson to hit his eighth homer of the year here. Risk 0.1 units.
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