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We turned in a small profit on Thursday, as Jordan Walker hit a home run, making up for misses on Fernando Tatis Jr. and Heliot Ramos.
Today, we’re going with Byron Buxton, Yordan Alvarez, and Bobby Witt Jr. Each of these hitters is either having a great season or red-hot at the plate.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 26-115 (-1.11 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, May 15
Byron Buxton Home Run Odds
Byron Buxton has been terrific this season, slashing .260/.319/.580 with 15 home runs in 185 plate appearances. The dynamic center fielder continues to crush the ball, as highlighted by an otherworldly 21.1% barrel rate. It’s clear that he’s fully healthy at the plate, building off last year’s big numbers.
On top of that, Buxton comes into Friday’s action on a hot streak, having homered 10 times in his last 15 games, including twice vs. the Marlins. Up next is a matchup vs. Brewers’ right-hander Chad Patrick, who has a 4.09 xERA and an 8.7% barrel rate.
We’re getting favorable weather in Minnesota, with forecasts calling for 84-degree temperatures with 8.4 MPH winds blowing out to center. With that in mind, we’ll ride with Buxton to go yard once again. Risk 0.1 units.
Yordan Alvarez Home Run Odds
Yordan Alvarez is having a terrific season, slashing .321/.429/.642 with 14 home runs in 198 plate appearances. What’s incredible is that Alvarez has a sub-16% strikeout rate with a 17.8% barrel rate. The ability to put the ball in play so often while hitting for power is truly impressive.
While Alvarez has slowed down in May, slashing .234/.345/.404 with two homers, we did see him go yard last game. Perhaps this can be the start of another hot streak.
I like the matchup vs. Rangers’ right-hander Jack Leiter, who has had a tough time vs. lefties, allowing a .369 wOBA and a 1.59 HR/9. That’s bad news against a power-hitting lefty like Alvarez.
While the price is expensive, it’s for good reason, since this is an elite hitter in an exploitable matchup. Risk 0.1 units.
Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run Odds
Bobby Witt Jr. is currently slashing .306/.381/.503 with seven home runs in 197 plate appearances. The batted ball metrics look good as well, including a 13.4% barrel rate. What’s most appealing about taking Witt here is how hot he’s been at the plate.
So far in May, Witt is slashing .346/.414/.673 with five home runs. In fact, Witt has now homered in three of his last five games.
Up next is a good matchup vs. Dustin May. Yes, May has been red-hot on the mound, but due to the weather, we could see a lot of runs in this one. Forecasts are calling for 80-degree temperatures with 9.9 MPH winds blowing out to left-center.
With how well Witt is hitting right now, there’s a reasonable chance that he can homer again in this hitter-friendly weather. I like that we’re getting longer than +400 odds at the times of this article. Risk 0.1 units.
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