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We had a small profit on Thursday, as George Springer went yard at +500 odds, making up for losses on Shea Langeliers and Ronald Acuna Jr. We’ll try to build on this result for the Friday slate.
Today, we’re going with Adley Rutschman, Julio Rodriguez, and Jake Burger. Each of these hitters has performed well lately, set for exploitable matchups against struggling pitchers.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 29-130 (-1.32 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, May 22
Adley Rutschman Home Run Odds
Adley Rutschman has been hitting well for the Orioles, slashing .266/.319/.508 with seven home runs in 135 plate appearances. He’s homered twice in his last six games, so he’s coming into this one on a high note.
Up next is a matchup against Tigers’ right-hander Jack Flaherty, who has a 5.06 xERA (19th percentile) and 45.2% hard-hit rate (17th percentile). Flaherty has been worse vs. lefties (.367 wOBA) than righties (.339 wOBA).
As a switch-hitter, this bodes well for Rutschman, especially since he’s been better vs. righties (140 wRC+) than lefties (117 wRC+).
Add in the fact that this game is in a hitter-friendly environment in Camden Yards, where Rutschman has a 187 wRC+ this season, and you can see why this is an appealing wager. Risk 0.1 units.
Julio Rodriguez Home Run Odds
Julio Rodriguez has once again gotten off to a poor start, which he seems to do every season. He’s currently slashing .256/.320/.424 with eight home runs in 222 plate appearances.
However, we’ve seen better results in May, where Julio has a .260/.305/.545 slash with six home runs in 82 plate appearances. He’s also homered as recently as May 18th, which bodes well for this prop.
Up next is a matchup vs. Royals’ left-hander Noah Cameron, who has put up a 5.44 xERA (14th percentile) and allowed an 11.7% barrel rate (14th percentile) this season.
That’s good news for Julio, who has been much better vs. lefties (192 wRC+) than righties (89 wRC+) this season.
Then you have to consider that this game will be played at Kauffman Stadium, which is more of a hitter’s park now that they moved the fences in. Sounds like a good spot for Julio. Risk 0.1 units.
Jake Burger Home Run Odds
Jake Burger has been decent for the Rangers this season, slashing .243/.289/.431 with nine home runs in 194 plate appearances. He’s a streaky hitter who is heating up the plate lately, homering three times in his last seven games.
The Rangers are going up Angels’ right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, who struggled mightily in his return from injury, allowing seven earned runs in 3.2 innings.
This outing included a 15.4% barrel rate, so it’s clear that Rodriguez was giving up a ton of hard contact. That’s bad news vs. a streaky power hitter like Burger.
Even if Burger can’t go yard vs. Rodriguez, he’ll still have a chance to do so against an abysmal Angels’ bullpen.
When you consider Burger’s recent performance combined with Rodriguez’s struggles in returning from injury, you come away liking the Rangers’ first baseman to go yard in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
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