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We had another winning night on Thursday, as Bryan Reynolds cashed a +750 home run prop to make it a profitable evening, even with George Springer and Pete Alonso failing to go yard.
Today, we’re going with Eugenio Suarez, Michael Busch, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Each of these hitters is in a good spot to hit a home run.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 35-144 (-0.2 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, May 29
Eugenio Suarez Home Run Odds
Eugenio Suarez has had an injury-plagued start to the season in his first year back with the Reds. The veteran slugger is slashing .238/.322/.371 with three home runs in 118 plate appearances. However, this is a power hitter with a long track record, including 49 home runs last year, so it’s only a matter of time before he gets rolling.
We’re starting to see signs of a hot streak, as Suarez has two multi-hit games in his last three. In a home game in the bandbox that is Great American Ball Park, this could be a good spot for Suarez to hit No. 4.
It also bodes well that the matchup is against Braves’ right-hander Grant Holmes, who has had issues with the long ball this year, as highlighted by a 1.55 HR/9. Suarez has terrific numbers vs. Holmes in his career, including three home runs and a 1.415 expected slugging percentage in six plate appearances.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Suarez in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Michael Busch Home Run Odds
Michael Busch broke out with 36 home runs last year. So far this season, it’s been a slow start, including a .229/.367/.383 slash with six home runs in 248 plate appearances. The good news is that Busch is still hitting the ball hard, putting up a 12.8% barrel rate, so the power binge could be coming soon.
We’ve seen the Cubs’ first baseman hit two home runs in his last five games. Perhaps this is the start of a hot streak, so we’re going to hop on board now.
I like the matchup vs. Cardinals’ right-hander Kyle Leahy. The main appeal here is how much Leahy has struggled against left-handed hitters this season. They’re putting up a .425 wOBA against him, while righties are only at .297 wOBA.
I can’t pass up that kind of batter-vs-pitcher data here, especially since Busch is showing signs of life at the plate. Risk 0.1 units.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Home Run Odds
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is another hitter who has gotten off to a slow start, slashing .246/.324/.400 with six home runs in 219 plate appearances. The barrel rate is way down, falling from 15.0% to 6.0%, but I trust in Chisholm’s track record as a hitter with 30-homer upside.
He’s also really heating up at the plate. In his last 12 games, he’s gone 18-for-51 (.353 BA) with two home runs. That bodes well for tonight’s matchup, which is at one of the most hitter-friendly environments against the Athletics at Sutter Health Park.
Chisholm will be going up against Athletics’ right-hander Luis Severino. The career numbers look good, as Jazz has two home runs with a .685 expected slugging percentage against Severino in 14 plate appearances.
Considering how well Jazz is swinging the bat, you have to like this spot in a hitter’s park against a pitcher he’s dominated. Risk 0.1 units.
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Photo Credit: AP/Carolyn Kaster
