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We turned in a small profit on Thursday, as Bobby Witt Jr. hit a home run to help overcome the losses from Aaron Judge and Ketel Marte.
Today, we’re riding with Juan Soto, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Trevor Story. Let’s build off Thursday’s result with a win here.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 21-100 (-1.27 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, May 8
Juan Soto Home Run Odds
Juan Soto is currently slashing .299/.396/.506 with four home runs in 91 plate appearances. While those numbers don’t jump off the screen, the batted ball metrics definitely do, as highlighted by a 23.4% barrel rate. Soto has three home runs since April 28, so he’s starting to swing a hot bat.
I like the upcoming matchup vs. D-Backs’ righty Ryne Nelson, who has gotten crushed at home this year, putting up a 14.40 ERA and a 3.60 HR/9 in 10.0 innings. Nelson has been worse against lefties like Soto (2.2 HR/9) compared to right-handers (1.80 HR/9).
We should also note that Soto has two home runs with a .658 expected slugging percentage in 19 career plate appearances against Nelson. That kind of batter-vs-pitcher data is notable.
Considering these factors, we’ll take Soto to go yard in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run Odds
Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently slashing .246/.311/.391 with four home runs in 152 plate appearances. The second-half struggles from last year have carried over into this season. However, there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel, so to speak.
PCA has homered three times in his last eight games, which is encouraging. Perhaps he’s finally adapting to the adjustments that big league pitchers have made against him, which was the root cause of the prolonged cold streak.
Up next is an exploitable matchup vs. Kumar Rocker, who is allowing a 4.84 xERA and an 8.7% barrel rate on the season. Rocker has been much worse vs. lefties (.367 wOBA) compared to righties (.293 wOBA), which bodes well for PCA.
We’re getting a reasonable price on this defensive wizard in center field, so let’s ride with PCA to hit his 5th homer of the season here. Risk 0.1 units.
Trevor Story Home Run Odds
Trevor Story is off to an abysmal start at the plate, slashing .203/.242/.287 with two home runs in 153 plate appearances. What’s concerning here is the batted ball metrics, as Story’s 3.1% barrel rate is a major decrease from last year (9.8%).
Story hasn’t homered since April 15th, but he’s hit safely in eight of his last 10 games, so there’s a chance that he’s slowly snapping out of this season-long slump.
Remember, Story is a streaky hitter who put up 25 home runs last season, so it’s only a matter of time before he gets going. I’ll take my chances against Rays’ righty Jesse Scholtens, who has a 4.12 xERA on the season.
Story has some value in his odds, as we’re getting him at a reduced price due to the slow start. With that in mind, let’s ride with Story here. Risk 0.1 units.
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