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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 82-356 (-2.78 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, September 4
Kody Clemens Home Run Odds for Friday
Kody Clemens has been a huge surprise for the Twins, coming into Thursday’s action with a .236/.296/.468 slash with 24 home runs in 498 plate appearances. He has rock-solid batted ball metrics, including a 12.2% barrel rate.
On top of that, Clemens has three home runs in his last six games, so he’s coming in hot for this one. As a left-handed hitter, Clemens is much better vs. righties (.248 ISO) than lefties (.186 ISO). He’ll get one in today’s matchup.
Clemens gets to face White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde, who has a 4.68 xERA and a 1.61 HR/9 this season. This includes a below-average 8.1% barrel rate.
At the time of this article, we’re getting longer than +500 odds on Clemens, making him look like a strong play here. Risk 0.1 units.
Kevin McGonigle Home Run Odds for Friday
Kevin McGonigle is having an excellent rookie season for the Tigers, slashing .271/.372/.410 with 14 home runs in 608 plate appearances. While he hasn’t homered since August 23rd, I like that we’re getting a discount due to the lefty-vs-lefty matchup against Logan Allen.
For one, the price is appealing at longer than +700 odds at the time of this article. On top of that, it’s not like Allen will pitch deep into this game. He only went two innings in his last appearance, back on August 29th.
Lars Nootbaar Home Run Odds for Friday
Lars Nootbaar is currently slashing .231/.333/.373 with six home runs in 261 plate appearances. This includes respectable batted ball metrics with a 10.3% barrel rate.
As a left-handed hitter, Nootbaar is much better against righties (.153 ISO) than lefties (.083 ISO). He’ll get one up next vs. Cristian Javier, who has 5.17 xERA and a 1.61 HR/9 this season.
We’ve seen Nootbaar homer twice in his last seven games, so he’s in good form right now. At the time of this article, we’re getting longer than +700 odds, making Nootbaar worth a look here. Risk 0.1 units.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
