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We were unable to take advantage of windy conditions at Wrigley Field on Sunday, missing on Konnor Griffini. Gunnar Henderson and Corey Seager let us down as well. We’ll try to start off a new week with a fresh start and a profitable night.
Today, we’re riding with Aaron Judge, Austin Riley, and Roman Anthony. We’re going a little more chalky in our predictions because it’s been a tough start to the season.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 4-42 (-1.76 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, April 13
Aaron Judge Home Run Odds
Aaron Judge is currently slashing .218/.328/.455 with four home runs in 65 plate appearances. It’s been a slow start, but the batted ball metrics look elite as usual, as highlighted by a 21.6% barrel rate.
The Yankees’ slugger homered in the ninth inning against the Rays on Sunday, snapping a 2-for-24 slump up to that point. I’m betting that it can be the start of a hot streak, beginning with a home game against the Angels.
Los Angeles will send out left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who has kept his barrel rate in check so far (4.2%), but it’s been 9+% in each of his previous five seasons. In other words, that’s unlikely to last.
Judge is mashing lefties so far this season (245 wRC+) and has a 184 wRC+ against them throughout his career.
On top of that, there’s a lot of familiarity here, with Kikuchi having previously pitched for the division rival Blue Jays. In 34 plate appearances, Judge has two home runs with a .570 expected slugging percentage.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Judge to go yard for the 5th time this season. Risk 0.1 units.
Austin Riley Home Run Odds
Austin Riley has zero home runs in 66 plate appearances, but we all know about his track record, having three seasons with 33+ long balls. While the barrel rate hasn’t been there so far (7.0%), he’s been at 13% or better in each of his previous five seasons.
Even though the matchup is tough against Eury Perez on paper, we’ve seen the Marlins’ righty have issues with the long ball so far, allowing four home runs in 16 innings so far.
It’s also worth noting that Riley is starting to heat up at the plate, going 7-for-20 (.350) with two doubles in his last five games. We’ve also seen three batted balls of 100+ MPH in his last three games, topping out at 109.3 MPH on a single off Guardians’ righty Slade Cecconi.
It’s only a matter of time before Riley starts hitting home runs, so we’ll take a shot that it happens tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Roman Anthony Home Run Odds
Roman Anthony is off to a poor start at the plate, slashing .200/.290/.309 with one home run in 62 plate appearances. However, the barrel rate is at a respectable 8.1%, and the matchup is a good one tonight.
The Red Sox take on the Twins, with Bailey Ober on the mound for Minnesota. The veteran righty has been able to limit hard contact so far (6.3% barrel rate), but it was at 10.9% last year. Plus, Ober struggles with velocity, averaging only 88.6 MPH on his fastball this year.
Last season, Ober gave up a 2.00 HR/9, so this looks like a good spot for Anthony to hit his second homer of the year.
You have to like the price on this one as well, at longer than +500 odds at the time of this article. Risk 0.1 units.
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Photo Credit: AP/William Liang
