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Tough day at the office on Sunday, as we missed on Kyle Tucker, Zach Neto, and Everson Pereira.
Today, we’re going with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Will Smith, and Jac Caglianone. Let’s try to bounce back.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 8-59 (-2.33 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, April 20
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run Odds
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is currently slashing .333/.429/.436 in 91 plate appearances, but he only has one home run so far. However, it feels like we’re going to get one soon, so we’ll take a shot tonight. Not only does Vladdy still have an 11.9% barrel rate, but he’s also on a 10-game hitting streak. This includes five multi-hit games.
While the matchup isn’t great on paper against Reid Detmers, as the Angels’ lefty just dominated the Yankees, the weather conditions look slightly favorable. Forecasts are calling for 8 MPH winds blowing out at Angel Stadium. Plus, it’s not like Detmers usually goes deep into games.
So, here we have an established 25+ home run hitter with a 40-home run ceiling, yet to get going with his power, but still generating a ton of contact. We’ll take a shot that Vladdy gets going tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Will Smith Home Run Odds
Will Smith is putting up a .303/.373/.409 slash with two home runs in 75 plate appearances. The batted ball metrics look solid (10.9% barrel rate), but the main angle here is the matchup. We’re getting warmer temperatures than what we saw in the first two games in this series at Coors Field, which bodes well for hitting.
On top of that, this is a smash spot against Jose Quintana, who is allowing an astounding 19.2% barrel rate so far. The veteran lefty is struggling mightily so far this year. He’s only there to eat innings for the Rockies. There’s a good chance that he gets crushed tonight.
While most Dodgers’ hitters are priced up, Smith is still available at longer than +400 odds, so I’ll take a chance on him hitting his third homer here. Risk 0.1 units.
Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds
Jac Caglianone is off to a slow start so far, slashing .270/.343/.365 with zero home runs in 70 plate appearances. However, he’s still hitting the ball hard, putting up a 16.7% barrel rate. It’s only a matter of time before he goes yard.
The young slugger is currently on a five-game hitting streak, set for a home game against Kyle Bradish, who has been disappointing for the Orioles so far.
As a left-handed bat, Caglianone is much better against righties. It also bodes well that this game is at Kauffman Stadium, which should start to play up as a hitter’s park soon, since they moved the fences in. Unlike other games on the slate, it’s not too cold in Kansas City for this game, making Caglianone worth a look at longer than +700 odds. Risk 0.1 units.
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Photo Credit: AP/David Zalubowski
