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We had a small win on Sunday, as Spencer Torkelson went yard, but Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Seiya Suzuki were shut out. Let’s have another winning day on Monday.
Today, we’re going with Munetaka Murakami, Matt Wallner, and Ben Rice. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 13-75 (-1.68 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, April 27
Munetaka Murakami Home Run Odds
Munetaka Murakami has gotten off to a phenomenal start to his big league career, slashing .232/.369/.566 with 11 home runs. The young slugger has been a lot better against righties, coming into Sunday’s action with a 181 wRC+ against them.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against right-hander Jack Kochanowicz. This is a pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact, ranking in the 45th percentile in barrel rate and the 35th percentile in hard hit rate.
On top of that, Kochanowicz has been a lot worse against left-handers like Murakami, including a 4.89 xFIP allowed.
Add in the fact that this is a home game in a hitter-friendly environment, and it looks like a great spot for Murakami to hit his 12th home run. Risk 0.1 units.
Matt Wallner Home Run Odds
Matt Wallner came into Sunday’s action with a .186/.278/.314 with three home runs in 97 plate appearances. This is a left-handed hitter who is much better against righties, putting up a 91 wRC+ against them this year (34 wRC+ vs. lefties).
I like the matchup against Luis Castillo, especially since the game is in a more hitter-friendly environment in Minnesota (Seattle has one of the best pitcher’s parks in MLB).
Castillo has struggled so far this year, putting up a 5.25 xERA and an 11.8% barrel rate, so it’s a good spot for Wallner to go yard. He’s been ice cold lately, but that gives us a chance to get better odds. Given this spot vs. Castillo, we’ll take a shot on Wallner.
It’s also worth noting that Wallner has put up a respectable .366 xwOBA in 11 career plate appearances vs. Castillo. Risk 0.1 units.
Ben Rice Home Run Odds
Ben Rice has lived up to the hype so far, coming into Sunday’s action with a .337/.457/.759 slash with nine home runs in 105 plate appearances. The plate discipline is great with an 18.1% walk rate, while the batted ball metrics are elite (23.6% barrel rate).
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Rangers’ right-hander Jack Leiter. As a left-handed slugger, any matchup against a righty is a good one for Rice. He has a .397 ISO against them this season.
On top of that, Leiter has been much worse vs. lefties, allowing a .415 wOBA and 1.59 HR/9 against them. Leiter can miss bats, but he sometimes allows hard contact, as highlighted by a 14.1% barrel rate, which ranks in the 11th percentile.
With that in mind, we’ll go with Rice to hit his 10th home run of the season. Risk 0.1 units.
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