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We got back on track on Saturday, as Oneil Cruz homered, making up for losses on Yordan Alvarez and Junior Caminero. While I was off on Sunday we missed with our replacement picks, so we’re back looking for another winning night on Monday.
Today, we’re going with James Wood, Shohei Ohtani, and Jorge Soler.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 36-149 (-0.32 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, June 1
James Wood Home Run Odds
James Wood is slashing .272/.411/.548 with 16 home runs in 282 plate appearances. While strikeouts are still an issue (28.7 K%), he continues to barrel the ball at an elite rate (25.9%). The Nationals’ outfielder was terrific in May, putting up a 176 wRC+.
Wood is coming in hot for this game, having homered four times in his last six games. Up next is an exploitable matchup against Marlins’ right-hander Sandy Alcantara, who is putting up a 1.08 HR/9 this season. The long ball has really hurt Alcantara in his last two starts, as he’s allowed a combined five homers during that stretch.
It also helps Wood’s case that Alcantara struggles against lefties, as highlighted by a .367 wOBA allowed (.285 wOBA vs righties).
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Wood to hit No. 17 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Shohei Ohtani Home Run Odds
Shohei Ohtani has been a bit disappointing at the plate by his lofty standards, slashing .280/.402/.493 with 10 home runs in 255 plate appearances. However, he’s starting to get on track, homering twice in his last four games.
While this is a lefty-vs-lefty spot against Eduardo Rodriguez, Ohtani has one home run and a .776 expected slugging percentage in 26 career plate appearances vs. the veteran.
While E-Rod has done a good job limiting the long ball this year (0.68 HR/9), he’s allowed 1.4+ HR/9 in each of his last two seasons.
We’re getting a better price than usual on Ohtani since he’s going up against a lefty, so this feels like a good spot to go with him. Take Ohtani to hit his 11th homer of the year here. Risk 0.1 units.
Jorge Soler Home Run Odds
Jorge Soler is slashing .212/.294/.389 with nine home runs in 231 plate appearances. The veteran slugger is struggling at the plate, as highlighted by a 31.6% strikeout rate and a 90 wRC+.
However, we’ve seen some signs of life from Soler lately. He’s hit safely in seven of his last eight games.
It’s also worth noting that Soler is still hitting the ball relatively hard, including an 11.3% barrel rate.
Up next is matchup against Rockies’ lefty Kyle Freeland, who has been abysmal this season, giving up a 2.55 HR/9 and a 9.0% barrel rate. Righties like Soler have absolutely crushed Freeland so far, putting up a .436 wOBA.
It also helps that Soler has been a lot better vs. lefties in his career, putting up a 127 wRC+ (105 wRC+ vs. righties).
Considering these factors, it feels like a good spot for Soler to go yard for the 10th time this season. Risk 0.1 units.
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