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We made a small profit on Sunday, as Junior Caminero hit a home run, making up for losses on Shohei Ohtani and Jake Burger. Let’s build on this with a strong start to the week on the Monday slate.
Today, we’re going with Kyle Schwarber, Eugenio Suarez, and Hunter Goodman. Each of these hitters has a good matchup, making it feel like the right spot to ride with them.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 46-180 (+1 unit)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, June 15
Kyle Schwarber Home Run Odds
Kyle Schwarber is slashing .247/.363/.568 with 24 home runs in 306 plate appearances. This includes an otherworldly 20.6% barrel rate, as Schwarber continues to crush the ball in his age-33 season. We saw him homer as recently as June 10th. I’m betting that he does it again in tonight’s matchup.
It’s a good spot against Marlins’ right-hander Ryan Gusto. Last season, lefties like Schwarber crushed Gusto, putting up a .413 wOBA and 2.59 HR/9. That hasn’t been the case so far this year, but we can blame that on the extremely small sample.
Playing at home in a hitter-friendly environment like Citizens Bank Park, I like Schwarber’s chances of hitting his 25th homer of the season in this favorable spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Eugenio Suarez Home Run Odds
Eugenio Suarez is currently slashing .215/.282/.354 with five home runs in 174 plate appearances. It’s been a disappointing season so far for Suarez, where his strikeout rate has increased from 29.8% to 31.0%, and his barrel rate has fallen from 14.3% to 7.6%. But we all know about Suarez’s strong track record, which includes 49 homers last year, so it’s only a matter of time before we see a hot streak.
We’re slowly starting to see Suarez heat up at the plate, as he’s gone 5-for-15 with one home run in his last four games. Playing at home in the bandbox that is Great American Ball Park, this is a good spot for him to go yard.
You also have to like the matchup against Mets’ right-hander Tobias Myers, who is giving up a .415 wOBA against righties like Suarez so far. With that in mind, we’ll ride with the veteran slugger to hit No. 6 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Hunter Goodman Home Run Odds
Hunter Goodman is currently slashing .250/.321/.536 with 20 home runs in 280 plate appearances. While he’s striking out 33.9% of the time, he also has an impressive 15.8% barrel rate. After a breakout season in 2025, Goodman is establishing himself as one of the best power-hitting catchers in baseball.
He’s been red-hot at the plate as well, homering nine times in his last 17 games, including two against the Athletics on Sunday. Up next is an exploitable matchup against Shota Imanaga, who is giving up a 1.86 HR/9 to righties like Goodman this season. Goodman has a .260 ISO vs. lefties, so this is a terrific spot.
It also helps that we’re getting 10 MPH winds blowing out at Wrigley, which is why the game total is currently at 9.5 runs. Considering how hot Goodman has been, this is a good time to continue riding the wave. Risk 0.1 units.
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