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We got shut out on Sunday, as James Wood, Rafael Devers, and Travis Bazzana each failed to hit home runs. We’ve hit a bit of a cold streak lately, so we’ll need to bounce back on the Monday slate.
Today, we’re going with Kyle Stowers, William Contreras, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Each of these hitters has been hot at the plate, so we’re taking them in an exploitable matchup.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 50-196 (+0.56 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, June 22
Kyle Stowers Home Run Odds
Kyle Stowers is currently slashing .223/.319/.416 with eight home runs in 227 plate appearances. The Marlins’ outfielder has been red-hot at the plate, homering three times in his last four games. In the last seven days, Stowers has been absolutely crushing the ball, putting up .564 xwOBA, which ranks 2nd in MLB during that stretch.
Up next is a matchup against Rangers’ right-hander Kumar Rocker, who has put up a 5.08 xERA and a 1.04 HR/9 this season. Lefties like Stowers have absolutely crushed Rocker, putting up a .354 wOBA against him (.274 wOBA vs. righties).
With Stowers locked in at the plate, it’s time to ride with him here. Remember, Stowers homered 25 times in only 457 plate appearances last year. This is a legitimate power hitter. Risk 0.1 units.
William Contreras Home Run Odds
William Contreras is currently slashing .299/.358/.417 with seven home runs in 310 plate appearances. While that’s an underwhelming line, he’s starting to heat up at the plate, going 6-for-9 with a home run in his last two games. In the last seven days, Contreras has a .497 xwOBA, which ranks 7th in MLB during this stretch.
That’s great news because the Brewers are starting a series in Cincinnati tonight, so Contreras will have a chance to go yard in one of the most homer-friendly ballparks in baseball. Great American Ball Park is a home run haven, and Brady Singer, tonight’s starter, has issues with the long ball, allowing a 2.32 HR/9 on the season.
With Contreras hitting the ball harder than most hitters in baseball right now, it’s an ideal time to take him to hit No. 8 tonight. He has two 20+ home run seasons under his belt, so the power is definitely there. Risk 0.1 units.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run Odds
Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently slashing .286/.363/.521 with 16 home runs in 329 plate appearances. He’s been absolutely incredible in June, slashing .437/.481/.930 with nine homers in 79 plate appearances. In the last seven days, PCA has a .494 xwOBA, which ranks 8th in MLB during that stretch.
Up next is a favorable matchup against Kodai Senga, who has had major issues with the long ball this season, allowing a 2.63 HR/9. Lefties like PCA have absolutely crushed Senga this season, putting up a .436 wOBA against him.
While we have to pay a high price on PCA here, with how well he’s swinging the bat right now, it’s the perfect time to ride with him vs. Senga. Risk 0.1 units.
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