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We got shut out on Sunday, as Seiya Suzuki and Samuel Basallo failed to homer, while Jac Caglianone was out of the lineup, so that bet was a void.
We’ll look to get back on track for the Monday slate, where we’re riding with Alec Bohm, Austin Riley, and Luis Garcia Jr.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 27-120 (-1.32 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, May 18
Alec Bohm Home Run Odds
Alec Bohm came into Sunday’s action with an abysmal .201/.259/.292 with three home runs in 170 plate appearances. This includes a non-existent barrel rate at 1.5%. So, why am I taking him here?
Well, for one, Bohm has been better in May, slashing .313/.353/.479 with two home runs in 51 plate appearances coming into Sunday, where he’s hit safely in seven consecutive games.
On top of that, as a right-handed hitter, Bohm is better against lefties. This season, Bohm has a 91 wRC+ vs. lefties (38 wRC+ vs. righties). In his career, Bohm has a 131 wRC+ vs. lefties (88 wRC+ vs. righties).
That’s good news for tonight because he’ll be going up against a left-hander in Nick Lodolo, who has an 8.79 xERA so far this year. This includes an awful 20.7% barrel rate.
Bohm has had success vs. Lodolo in his career, with one home run and a .541 expected slugging percentage against him. With that in mind, we’ll ride with Bohm in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Austin Riley Home Run Odds
Austin Riley was one of my favorite targets in fantasy baseball this year, but he’s been underwhelming so far, slashing .214/.283/.358 with six home runs in 191 plate appearances.
However, we’re starting to see Riley get back on track in May, where he’s slashing .269/.304/.462 with three home runs. This is a hitter with a 30+ home run track record across several seasons, so I’m a big believer that he’ll eventually get on track.
I like the matchup for Riley against Marlins’ righty Max Meyer, who is allowing a 4.27 xERA and a 10.9% barrel rate. Riley has an impressive .403 xwOBA with one home run in 11 plate appearances vs. Meyer.
Given these factors, we’ll take a shot with Riley here. Risk 0.1 units.
Luis Garcia Jr. Home Run Odds
Luis Garcia Jr. came into Sunday’s action with a .269/.298/.425 slash with three home runs in 141 plate appearances. The barrel rate doesn’t jump off the page either at 7.0%.
However, I like this spot against Mets’ right-hander Christian Scott. For one, as a left-handed hitter, Garcia is a lot better vs. right-handers. In his career, Garcia has a 103 wRC+ against righties compared to 60 wRC+ vs. lefties.
Additionally, Garcia has done well vs. Scott in an extremely small sample, homering once with a .745 xwOBA in three plate appearances. We recently saw Garcia homer twice on May 12th, so perhaps he’s getting in a groove, which also bodes well.
Considering Garcia isn’t a 20+ home run hitter, we’re getting decent odds on him in this spot. We’ll ride with the Nationals’ infielder to hit his fourth homer of the year here. Risk 0.1 units.
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