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We got shut out on Sunday, as Austin Wells, Corbin Carroll, and Carson Benge each failed to homer. We’ll try to get back in the winning column on Monday.
Today, we’re going with Aaron Judge, Seiya Suzuki, and Jac Caglianone. Each of these three hitters is in favorable spots due to hitter-friendly weather.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 16-93 (-2.33 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, May 4
Aaron Judge Home Run Odds
Aaron Judge is currently slashing .264/.403/.628 with 13 home runs in 153 plate appearances. The Yankees’ superstar has an otherworldly 27.5% barrel rate, so he’s been absolutely crushing the ball so far this year.
Judge comes into this game on a nice run, homering four times in his last seven games. He’s in a good spot to go yard once again, as forecasts are calling for 8.2 MPH winds blowing out to left at Yankee Stadium.
Additionally, Judge is going up against Orioles’ right-hander Shane Baz, who has a 4.11 xERA on the season. Judge has crushed Baz throughout his career, putting up two homers with a 1.024 expected slugging percentage against him.
So, here we have the best hitter in baseball, at home with windy weather, taking on an underwhelming pitcher who he’s hit hard in the past. In other words, Judge checks off every box you want to see for tonight’s home run props. Risk 0.1 units.
Seiya Suzuki Home Run Odds
Seiya Suzuki has been terrific for the Cubs, slashing .308/.402/.526 with five home runs in 92 plate appearances. The veteran slugger has five homers in his last 11 games, which is encouraging, especially in tonight’s context.
It’s your classic wind blowing out at Wrigley game, as highlighted by the total, which sits at 11 runs. Forecasts call for 12.5 MPH winds blowing out to center. That’s exactly the type of game environment you want with a home run prop.
While that means that prices are inflated, I’m still willing to ride with Suzuki because he’s at nearly +300 odds at the time of this article. That matchup is a good one as well vs. Chase Petty, who has a 4.12 xFIP in Triple-A so far and struggled in a brief stint in the big leagues last year (11.07 xERA).
When you consider these factors, you come away liking Suzuki’s chances at hitting his 6th homer of the year. Risk 0.1 units.
Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds
Jac Caglianone has been disappointing so far, putting up a .255/.356/.418 slash with three home runs in 110 plate appearances. However, he’s still hitting the ball hard, as highlighted by a 15.6% barrel rate. The young slugger just needs to stop hitting so many groundballs.
Caglianone is starting to show encouraging signs at the plate, homering three times in his last 11 games. He’s got elite power, and I’m fully confident that he’ll eventually be able to be more productive there.
We’re getting a reasonable price on Caglianone at the time of this article. It’s a good spot at Kauffman Stadium, where forecasts are calling for 7.5 MPH winds blowing out to center.
You also have to like the spot vs. Tanner Bibee, who has a 4.27 xERA on the season. With that in mind, we’ll ride with Caglianone to homer here. Risk 0.1 units.
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