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We nailed both Austin Riley and Yordan Alvarez to go yard on Friday, so it was our second straight profitable day. Let’s stay hot on the Saturday slate.
Today, we’re going with Jo Adell, Jose Fernandez, and Christian Walker. Each of these hitters has a strong track record and is in a favorable situation to hit home runs.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 8-53 (-1.73 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, April 18
Jo Adell Home Run Odds
Jo Adell is currently slashing .302/.341/.430 with three home runs in 91 plate appearances. He’s starting to heat up at the plate, homering twice in his last four games.
This is a hitter with 77.0 MPH bat speed, which ranks in the 97th percentile. He’s also putting up a 50.0% hard-hit rate (81st percentile).
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Padres’ right-hander German Marquez. The former Rockie has already allowed five home runs in 13 innings this season. Marquez gives up a ton of hard contact, including an 11.1% barrel rate (25th percentile) and 53.3% hard-hit rate (8th percentile).
Given Adell’s overall skillset and recent form, coupled with Marquez’s struggles with hard contact, riding with the Angels’ outfielder makes a lot of sense here. Risk 0.1 units.
Jose Fernandez Home Run Odds
Jose Fernandez has been one of the surprises in the early part of the season, coming out of nowhere to slash .302.302/.453 with two home runs in 53 plate appearances. This is a hitter with 75.1 MPH bat speed, which ranks in the 87th percentile.
While this is still an unproven hitter, I like the odds on his home run prop against Blue Jays’ veteran Max Scherzer, who has had a major problem with home runs this season. In 10.1 innings, Scherzer has already allowed four home runs. He’s been worse against righties (4.50 HR/9) than lefties (2.84), which bodes well for Fernandez.
Considering these circumstances, we’ll ride with the young D-Backs’ infielder against the struggling Blue Jays. Risk 0.1 units.
Christian Walker Home Run Odds
I missed on Christian Walker earlier this week, but I’ll give him another try. The veteran is in the middle of a resurgence for the Astros, slashing .278/.369/.528 with four home runs in 84 plate appearances.
The batted ball metrics look fantastic for Walker, including a 14.0% barrel rate (83rd percentile) and a 15.0% strikeout rate (85th percentile).
On top of that, it’s an exploitable matchup against Andre Pallante, who is giving up a 47.2% hard-hit rate, which ranks in the 22nd percentile. We’ve seen Pallante struggle with home runs against righties, allowing a 1.59 HR/9.
Given what we’ve seen from Walker so far, this feel like a great spot to take him to go yard. Risk 0.1 units.
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