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We’ve been completely cold in home run props this past week, losing on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodriguez, and Kyle Tucker on the Friday slate. Let’s try to have a profitable night on Saturday to bounce back.
Today, we’re going with Kyle Schwarber, Jake Bauers, and Bobby Witt Jr. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, August 15
Kyle Schwarber Home Run Odds
Kyle Schwarber is having yet another terrific season, slashing .250/.371/.544 with 37 home runs in 521 plate appearances. This includes an elite 18.1% barrel rate, so he’s been crushing the ball yet again this year.
The Phillies’ slugger is coming in hot, homering four times in his last five games, including two last night. We’re getting a bit of a discount compared to his usual cost because it’s a lefty-vs-lefty matchup against Connor Prielipp, so let’s take advantage of that.
I’m not too concerned because Schwarber still has a .283 ISO against lefties, so they haven’t affected him much. On top of that, Prielipp is giving up a .373 wOBA against lefties (.304 wOBA vs. righties), which bodes well for this prop.
With how hot Schwarber has been at the plate, we have to hop on board this freight train. Risk 0.1 units.
Jake Bauers Home Run Odds
Jake Bauers has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, finally getting everyday playing time and making the most of this opportunity. He’s currently slashing .269/.376/.495 with 21 home runs in 439 plate appearances. This includes impressive batted ball metrics with a 13.7% barrel rate.
Bauers has three home runs in his last 12 games, set for a lefty-vs-lefty matchup vs. Justin Wrobleski. As with Schwarber, I’m not too concerned about this because Bauers has a .228 ISO vs. lefties. Plus, Wrobleski has reverse splits, allowing a 1.78 HR/9 to lefties (1.10 HR/9 vs. righties).
Wrobleski has had major issues with the long ball lately, allowing nine home runs in his last three starts. With that in mind, we’ll ride with Bauers in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run Odds
Bobby Witt Jr. is currently slashing .285/.358/.447 with 13 home runs in 458 plate appearances. It’s been a bit of a disappointing season when it comes to power, as his .162 ISO is a career low. However, the good news is that he still has a respectable barrel rate (11.5%).
Up next is a matchup against lefty Reid Detmers. Witt has been much better against lefties (.187 ISO) than righties (.153 ISO). On top of that, he’s had success vs. Detmers in his career, homering twice in only 12 plate appearances.
We’re getting favorable weather conditions, as reports indicate that the wind will be blowing out in Anaheim tonight. Even though Witt hasn’t homered since July 9th, this feels like the right spot to take a chance on him. Go with Witt to hit No. 14 in this matchup. Risk 0.1 units.
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