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Below are the best MLB home run picks for Saturday. Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 80-341 (-1.89 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, August 29
Shohei Ohtani Home Run Odds for Saturday
Shohei Ohtani is currently slashing .285/.385/.542 with 30 home runs in 568 plate appearances. While the barrel rate has fallen from 23.4% to 16.1%, he’s having a good month, slashing .263/.346/.526 in 107 plate appearances.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Tigers’ right-hander Keider Montero. What’s encouraging for this home run prop is that Ohtani has performed well vs. Montero, homering once in three plate appearances.
With Ohtani having a rock-solid month and in good form, we’ll take a shot on him going yard against Montero. Risk 0.1 units.
Oneil Cruz Home Run Odds for Saturday
Oneil Cruz has had an injury-plagued season that’s deprived us of some terrific numbers, as he’s been very good this year, slashing .257/.347/.486 with 17 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 314 plate appearances. This includes an otherworldly 18.1% barrel rate, which is one of the highest in MLB.
Up next is a matchup against Cardinals’ right-hander Kyle Leahy, who has given up a lot of hard contact this season, including a 9.9% barrel rate.
Cruz has good numbers against Leahy, including one home run and an .816 expected slugging percentage in seven plate appearances. On top of that, Cruz has three home runs in his last seven games, so he’s in top form.
Austin Riley Home Run Odds for Saturday
We’ll finish it off with Austin Riley, who has been one of the most disappointing hitters in baseball, slashing .221/.294/.361 with 15 home runs in 531 plate appearances.
However, he’s been a bit better in August, slashing .259/.303/.444. Believe it or not, that’s the highest slugging percentage by month for Riley this year.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Rockies’ right-hander Ryan Feltner. This is one of the worst pitchers in baseball, putting up a 5.54 xERA and a 1.75 HR/9 this season. He’s giving up a ton of hard contact as well, as highlighted by a 10.9% barrel rate.
On top of that, Riley has performed well against Feltner, homering once with three hits in 10 plate appearances.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
