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We got shut out on Friday, as Spencer Torkelson, Marcell Ozuna, and Corbin Carroll each failed to hit home runs. Let’s try to get back on track on the Saturday slate.
Today, we’re going with Kyle Stowers, Jose Altuve, and Kyle Schwarber. Each of these hitters is in a good matchup. The price is right to ride with them here.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 49-191 (+0.82 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, June 20
Kyle Stowers Home Run Odds
Kyle Stowers is currently slashing .223/.307/.404 with seven home runs in 219 plate appearances. The suppressed production compared to last year is largely due to injury. It’s taken some time for Stowers to get back on track after a lengthy absence. But he’s heating up at the plate, homering twice on June 17th (we took him that night, too).
Up next is a matchup against Giants’ right-hander Trevor McDonald, who has given up one home run in two of his last three outings. Lefties like Stowers have crushed McDonald this season, putting up a .410 wOBA (.217 wOBA vs. righties).
Considering that Stowers has 30+ home run power, and he’s starting to get on a hot streak, this is a great time to ride with the Marlins’ outfielder. It also helps that we’re getting a terrific price on this prop at longer than +500 odds. Risk 0.1 units.
Jose Altuve Home Run Odds
Jose Altuve is currently slashing .234/.310/.405 with eight home runs in 230 plate appearances. This is another hitter with down numbers due to an injury. But the veteran second baseman is starting to get hot, homering three times in his last five games.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Guardians’ left-hander Joey Cantillo, who has given up at least one homer in three of his last four starts. Righties like Altuve have a .360 wOBA against Cantillo. On top of that, Altuve has a .182 career ISO vs. lefties (.157 ISO vs. righties).
With how Cantillo is struggling lately, coupled with the fact that Altuve is getting hot, this is the right spot to go with the veteran. It also helps that we’re getting a terrific price here, with Altuve listed as long as +700 in some spots. Risk 0.1 units.
Kyle Schwarber Home Run Odds
We’ll finish off our home run props with some chalk, riding with Kyle Schwarber, who is slashing .245/.361/.558 with 25 home runs in 324 plate appearances.
What I like about this spot is the matchup against Mets’ right-hander Freddy Peralta, who is allowing a .330 wOBA vs. lefties (.276 wOBA against righties). Schwarber is familiar with Peralta as well. In 20 career plate appearances, he has an .866 expected slugging percentage with two home runs.
This is a spot where we’re getting a bit of a better price than usual for Schwarber at just over +225 odds. Considering how inflated his odds can get, we’ll take a shot on him here. Risk 0.1 units.
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